It had been a while since the guest contributor to these musings had shared a copy of his report. He (I just assigned that for context), in reality, is actually genderless. However, as a human, he had always assumed the male identity for all of five hundred years that he was aware of his existence. As he had explained before, he may have existed in a different life form from whenever it was when he first arrived. He estimated it may have been several thousand if not a few million years when he landed as a microorganism on this planet. The way he explained it then was that he was one of trillions of micros contained in countless pods sent from their home planet many light years away to explore the universe. He is not aware of any other micro/s who survived but slowly he was able to deduce what his mission was. His prior reports had explained how he managed to become who or what he is now.
Meanwhile, here is one of his earlier quotes before we get to his latest report, by way of re-introducing him.
"I am slowly understanding my role. It is the context of time that I struggle relating to, because I am not sure of its relevance to my mission. Time as I observe here may not at all be relevant to the time of those receiving my reports. I am aware my dispatches from this planet may take centuries to circle back to me to and from the intended recipients and it is possible that those to whom I address my reports may no longer exist. But that's for another discussion. Meanwhile, I file this latest observation.
Before I go on, I think it is important that I select a name for archiving purposes. I am realizing now that perhaps there are others like me filing reports from various parts of the universe. There could be a few or there could be millions of others like me that were sent in all directions to observe and report, that managed to survive like I did but I have no way of knowing.
So, I call myself, "Seguey". It is appropriate, I think, because now I know that my existence here is one segue after another. And it is also a metaphor for how lifeforms here had developed. Of course, literally speaking, the development of their civilization is actually a series of one segue after another. (I added "y" to the original word segue - a literary practice which earthlings call "poetic license" and also to differentiate it from Segway - a two wheeled vehicle that is interesting but again still a simple technology compared to what you have in the home planet).
This is the report he shares. Note that he only describes our solar system and our place in it but does not quite know his exact location in the context of the universe. He assumes that those receiving his report can triangulate his location, describing our sun as a medium stellar mass, for his report to be relevant.
Report 7, Seguey, Sector - 3rd Planet from Medium Stellar Mass
I am writing this report at a crucial time on this planet. Please review my past reports for proper context and background. I will skip much of the background data on the preeminent species, namely homo sapiens, commonly known as humans - the form I have adopted since five hundred earth years ago. I do not recall what I was before then.
I will go straight to the point. The history of humans, or humanity, was a repeating pattern widely recognized by their historians. Part of that pattern is the repeating wars that occur among the human population. There had been two major wars in their recent history in addition to many minor ones that occurred in between and earlier. I saw them all for the last five hundred years.
A third major war will occur in the near future. I collated data from how previous wars occurred. In my earlier report, "The Rise and Fall of Empires", empires fell to be replaced by another. Each empire lasts ten human generations on average (approximately every two hundred fifty years one empire collapses to be replaced by another). This upcoming third major conflict will be different. In my earlier reporting, I mainly put together my conclusions on a basic algorithm to analyze existing conditions before each conflict that occurred followed by analysis of probable outcomes to follow.
This time I availed of the latest technology that is progressing rapidly. Humans call it artificial intelligence (AI). I am aware that this is going to be a powerful tool for them but I must admit it is probably rudimentary compared to what was used by those who sent me and others like me to explore and survey the rest of the universe. And I think that using their AI along with what was inherently already in my capability, my conclusions will have a better than 70-30 chance of being correct. Of course, I will not remove the possibility that I can be wrong.
I conclude the following. Germany started the first major war (1914). It failed to launch and establish the birth of an empire. One human generation later (1939), it commenced another imperative that started the second major conflict. It failed once again to successfully launch what it termed to be a thousand year reign of the Third Reich. Historians define it as:
"The Third Reich, [l] meaning "Third Realm" or "Third Empire", referred to the Nazi claim that Nazi Germany was the successor to the earlier Holy Roman Empire (800–1806) and German Empire (1871–1918)".
That did not happen. So, why am I concluding that Germany will again play a significant role in the next major war, once more?
Recent events led me to the same conclusions that repeating conflicts lead to predictable recurrences as had been in the past. I compiled a list, enumerated below, of how and why the next major war will happen, perhaps in ten or twenty five years. Indeed the world's a stage, actors all the same, although places differ, human nature prevails because lessons remain unlearned.
1. Russia/Ukraine war reawakened the fears that had always worried Western Europe and the rest of the western nations. It is the concern about the potential expansion of the war or that it is a precursor to a bigger one at some future time.
2. Immediately after the last major war, WWII, the winning side, predominantly the Allied countries, wanted to make sure that Germany will never re-arm for conquest ever again. Except for civil defense it cannot have a standing army that can threaten its neighbors. It was also true for Japan because it allied with Germany, together with Italy during WWII.
3. However, after that war, the fear shifted to a new alliance to the east - the formation of the Warsaw Pact, headed by the Soviet Union (that now fully embraced the communist agenda for world dominance). Consequently, Western Europe formed NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) with the U.S. as a prominent member to counter the Warsaw Pact. The Soviet Union (USSR) has an arsenal of nuclear weapons. Of the NATO members, only the U.S., Britain and France have nuclear arms. All four including Russia today have capability to launch from land based locations and from the air and from underwater via nuclear submarines. There are enough nuclear armaments presently that can destroy the earth, perhaps several times over.
4. But then the Warsaw Pact dissolved as the USSR failed to hold its grip over the socialist union that fractured for many reasons but mainly because the socialist economic system just simply failed. Recently, however, Russia's economy is buoyed by revenues from oil deposits to prop up its economy. The new leadership found a way to hold hostage those to its west. Its oil and a nuclear arsenal and military infrastructure are enough to maintain its formidable superpower status in Europe. Ancillary to that is the current leader's aspiration to re-constitute the old USSR.
5. The potential for another major conflict cannot be underestimated. There are a number of reasons behind what I consider the inevitable recurrence of a conflict. Economic, political and ideological backgrounds, miscalculation of underestimating and overestimating the conditions, and dire desperations. The idea of mutually assured destruction referred to by almost all military strategists as a deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons may no longer prevail as a result of distrust and misinformation that can plague national leaders into misguided decision making.
6. Western European countries still face the same predicament as before - the lack of sources for oil. Nuclear, wind and solar energy can only do so much to partially cover its energy needs. Oil would still be critical to fuel and lubricate heavy equipment from cross-country haulers of goods, fire trucks, earth moving equipment, airplanes and ships, and as raw material for plastics for almost all industrial applications and commercial/medical needs, etc. Today, the problem is exacerbated by the fact that Russia is the only oil producer in the region. Every other source for oil will come via ships from overseas. Global politics due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict has pushed Western Europe away from Russia but, unfortunately, they are held hostage literally by the umbilical cord that is the oil pipeline from Russia to the west.
7. Alliances are being forged in ways the world has not quite seen before. Germany on its own has rekindled its relationship with Turkey and Syria. Turkey provides a natural gateway between Europe and the Middle East while Syria is not only an oil producer, it does not have to ship oil via the dangerous Straits of Hormuz or the Suez Canal. Russia, China, North Korea have forged together an alliance of sorts that are meant to counter not just the U.S. and its own natural alliances but against NATO as well. The power play will become tense for the coming years.
8. Purely derived from analysis of history and a mix of historical deduction I surmise that perhaps Germany is pushed by something more profound than just the economy and security. The "Third Realm" or "Third Empire" will re-surface.
First, a historical background from when and where the bloodline of the German people may have started from the time of an ancient empire to the present site in Europe that Germany now occupies.
Widely recognized by their own historians, the cradle or birthplace of human civilization began in the region known then as Mesopotamia, a geographical location where early human populations emerged and developed into distinct and separate national borders. That region is today the upper Middle East. It was only natural that the earliest known empire would develop from there. It was the second empire - the Assyrian - that achieved the first crucial role from whence the so-called, "The Rise and Fall of Empires" (from my earlier report) started.
1. Akkadian Empire
Year Established and Ended: c.2334 BCE – c.2154 BCE
Duration: 180 years
Founding Country: Ancient Mesopotamia – around modern-day Iraq
Capital City: Akkad
2. Assyrian Empire
Year Established and Ended: c.2025 BCE – c.605 BCE
Duration: 1,420 years
Founding Country: Assyria (parts of modern-day Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran)
Capital City: several throughout different periods – first capital city was Aššur
From that historical background and from my observations in the last five hundred years I saw the repeating patterns of warfare, power struggle and the shifting conditions between the victors and the vanquished, human slavery, banishments and migration, the spreading human population went on to cover the entire landscape that later made up what is now the present world geography of the earth. Culture and languages evolved in rapid succession; however, the so called bloodline or DNA of the various populations that developed are preserved - a critical assumption by those who profess to believe in their own inalienable identity that led to the claim of superiority over others.
This takes us back to an earlier note in this report about, "The Third Realm" or "Third Empire".
The Germanic people, not limited to modern day population that occupy present day geographic Germany, also refers to other people in several countries along the western and northern Europe, who may claim their lineage to have originated from that region in the Middle East where they believed the Assyrian Empire began - the region that is presently occupied by parts of modern-day Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran.
It is that affiliation and consequent alliances that will subsequently result in the re-emergence of the original Assyrian Empire. However, that is not how it will be identified in the current context of a potential conflict. It will be more complex than that. It will come out as an economic, political, cultural and social alliance that harken to the days of the Prussian Empire. Presently, hardly anyone remembers let alone talk about Prussia.
For background, from commentaries of historians, current and past, a summary..
Prussia had:
1. One of the largest and best-drilled armies in Europe
2. Centralized bureaucracy modeled on military efficiency
3. A national culture that prized obedience, order, and discipline
"Why Does Prussia Still Matter Today?"
Even though Prussia no longer exists as a state, its fingerprints remain:
a. Germany’s civil service, education system, and military all carry Prussian DNA
b. Bismarck’s realpolitik and statecraft were rooted in Prussian ideals
c. The balance between federalism and centralization in Germany still echoes Prussian structures".
Although the old Prussian markers and boundaries are gone the discipline and orderliness of the people remained. That is how Germany recovered from the rubble after WWII and so quickly became an economic power in Europe in so short a time. However, that leaves a national insecurity that is a threat to its economic well being if it does not have military security.
France and Great Britain, as members of NATO, recently offered "nuclear umbrella" for Germany to reassure it against the perceived threat of the new Russian alliance that is already tipping the delicate balance in Europe. Not to be diminished is the umbilical cord that is the oil pipeline.
Now, before I forget, there are other parts of the geopolitical equation that need to be addressed. The Middle East which I identified earlier where civilization started is again an area of heightened tension. It is an area where for centuries empires changed hands over and over. Today, the Israel/Hamas conflict over a place called Palestine is once again a point of violent tension. For centuries, long before Europe held the stage for what historians define as the theater of many wars, the Middle East is where it all began. The rise and fall of the Assyrian and the Persian empires contributed to the many dispersals of many people, voluntarily or by force, through slavery or forced migration or military expeditions.
Among those who battled against both empires was the nation of Israel. As a consequence of losing the conflict much of the Israeli people were dispersed after constant subjugation, forced migration and slavery towards the west. Many of the fractured tribes went westerly into Europe. But they were not alone because along with them were their own slavers - a mix of Persians and Assyrians - who later were pushed by new victors, notably the Holy Roman Empire later, which by then were also a mixture of many people. That is how the Israeli people came to settle in places like Poland and the Prussian kingdom that later became what is now Germany for the most part. The Israelis kept their cultural, religious and customary identity but it was because of it that they were later the subject of persecution.
The turn of events immediately after WWII rekindled the beginning of the tension in the Middle East upon the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. That portion of history is too complex to be part of this report but suffice it to say that it is today where the final conflict will occur, if there is going to be one.
The third component of the geopolitical landscape would be the United States, where presently I have taken up permanent residency. I moved every one hundred years to live at locations that had the biggest impact on the affairs of the world at specific times. The United States was instrumental in ending the last two world wars. It will be drawn into one again if indeed such a conflict occurs. This time I conclude it will happen in the Middle East as had been the original theater of many wars. For now, there is not enough data for me to conclude how it will happen but there are many sources of tension. It is that tension that led me to conclude on the inevitability of a major conflict.
"A national culture that prized obedience, order, and discipline" brought Germany back into economic independence to lead Western Europe and it will ultimately have its own nuclear arsenal through the "nuclear umbrella" mentioned several paragraphs above, that France and Britain will provide. Or, it will develop its own nuclear capability. It and much of western Europe will be persuaded considering that countries like N. Korea, India and Pakistan have them already.
Presently, I continue my observations and I will keep sending my reports although I do not know if and when this and all other past reports I have already dispatched have been read by the intended recipients; besides, I am not even aware that there is anyone there to receive them. But I will keep sending them according to the mission that I and those like me were tasked to accomplish.
My conclusion for this report: Although I assess a 70-30 probability of a third major military conflict on this planet, (a) I am not sure exactly when, except to predict that it will happen in the next 10-25 years after all the conditions are fully in place; (b) there is a possibility that despite the repeating patterns of their history, humanity might at last and finally learn of the final lesson to avert the third and devastating war.
I am signing off for now.
P.S. I know there is quite a good number who read my musings that are from Germany and a few from Russia, Japan and surprisingly a handful from China and several from the Middle East and few and far between Asia and Africa, but mainly from North America. Please find no offense personally directed at any of you. Individually we live our lives as best we can, however, you will have to agree that human nature has overwhelmingly driven our collective history through a path we have very little control over for centuries of our existence. Also, you may even agree that perhaps it will take Divine intervention to prove our alien reporter wrong.
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