Our guest contributor immediately wanted a follow up after his last dispatch. We can speculate on why but his reasons might not likely be what we would expect or understand. Many of us may even suggest that his analysis will not go beyond, "it is as good as anyone's" because of the uncertainty principle that will always prevail over future events. However, we will have to agree that he did as best as possible to present a sound basis due to his various analyses of our history and his apparently sound understanding of human nature. Is that perhaps because when we come to think about it, our history is largely driven by our own nature, as opposed to the nature of every other living organism which holds no malice towards any other. The latter is driven by instincts. We, humans, have the capacity to have freewill and "dominion" over all other life forms that do not have that capacity outside of the instincts they have or programmed and created for in the environment and circumstances of their existence.
In a way, our alien contributor may not have a choice either. From his previous dispatches, he only talked about his mission and no other and that he has no capacity to either reason or question such as we do nor does he have the same human emotions; not even a hint of either sympathy or ability to worry.
Here is his latest report.
Report 8, from Seguey at Sector - 3rd Planet from Medium Stellar Mass
This is a follow up to my last dispatch - Report 7.
I briefly mentioned the possible role of the United States. I moved every one hundred of the last five hundred years of my existence that I am aware of and this could be my last if the events happen the way I predicted, with a 70-30 per cent probability.
The United States of America or USA for short had pivotal roles during the last world conflicts. It will play that role again if and when it happens. While the major players in histories remain the same during past conflicts that resulted in the reshaping of boundaries, alliances changed and so will new alliances come about in the coming years.
Even more significant is that the USA is at its 250th year from the time of its founding and independence from its colonizer. It is planning to celebrate that milestone next year, 2026.
It is significant but more so because from my earlier report, "The Rise and Fall of Empires", each empire in their recorded history had an average lifespan of about 250 years. That is a mere ten generations of population, each generation being twenty five years. It will be somewhat longer for a modern empire like the USA because of the relatively longer lifespans of its people compared to, say, the time of the Romans and the Greeks.
"From the 1500s until the early 1800s, life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 30 and 40 years. This was due in part to infant mortality rates that remained at 25% until 1800".
Although many of its greatest generation (those who fought in WWII) are almost all gone, the so called baby boomers who were born after that last war are still around, albeit in their twilight years, retired, many are grandparents, but still able to provide quite a bit of input into the national psyche in terms of their old morality, work ethics and savings to still make their mark on the economy and social conscience. I must add that when I talk about morality, social conscience, sympathy and personal feelings, I am doing that purely from their perspective, because apart from that I am not able to relate at all.
However, all of what made this country into an empire from the beginning are in danger of rapid erosion from so many factors.
a. Social and political divisions are widening
b. Gaps between generations are a reality: Social media savvy of the youth on one side versus less so among those one and two older generations born earlier; gaps in social mores are not just apparent, they are sometimes disconnected; altered work ethics and social ambitions; political understanding of local and international issues differ; widening gaps in knowledge of civic issues and decline in standards of public education.
These are the same conditions that tore previous empires apart. Leisure time, particularly among the youth, is plentiful but immersion in social media increased the effects several fold from just ten-fifteen years ago. Conveniences from technology and modern devices allowed for more leisure for the haves and are today's moral equivalent of the services provided by slaves and the serfdom during the time of the emperors, Caesars and Kings many centuries ago. Yesterday's gladiator and chariot races and many other spectator sports of yester-centuries ago are today's football, car racing, soccer matches and boxing and wrestling contests. The collective immersion in attention span made even greater by television, smartphones and personal computers and laptops.
It is a harsh indictment if I were just another human writer because I have yet to learn the origin, meaning and reason for what they refer to as emotions.
For every affluent country - from Europe to Asia - there are several other countries several fold the number whose populations do not have near the amount of wealth, economic wherewithal to enjoy a fraction of leisure time or the ability to access the kind of free time the developed countries enjoy. It is at those places where humans must still resort to personal and collective struggle upon which the human character is developed and honed. The USA was like that from the 16th and 17th centuries. It was by the 18th century, precisely in July, 1776 upon which the country will celebrate the 250-year milestone next year.
All of that being said, events are happening that are likely to affect the course of its history. There had been two assassination attempts on the life of its current president while still a candidate. Then of late the fatal assassination of a young political and social motivator. What these events have done will likely serve as a galvanizing revelation as to how and where the country is divided but how and where it is shifting towards.
Before the last Presidential election, it was clear that the country was tilting towards more liberal ideas and ideology, a slow but unidirectionally away from the conservative ideals that were the foundation of the country at its infancy. Then just like that, the reverse switch has been happening each day since then.
This is significant. It is possible now that what socio-political analysts have been warning about on the weakening of the state from widening chasm among the population may have been averted in favor of an apparent correction.
Most world conflicts that escalated towards warfare were attributed to the misreading by one political or military leader of another by underestimating the capability of their adversaries or overestimating their own. The USA was well on its way of being underestimated for its internal divisions and moral erosion of its society.
The switch could possibly result in the rethinking of strategies by potential challengers to the USA's global supremacy.
Some recent events to consider:
a. The air tight closure of its borders to illegal incursions, after the prior administrations loose control of it that was taken advantage of by foreign potential adversaries. That was abruptly halted.
b. The enforcement of trade tariffs seem to hold but not without domestic and foreign oppositions.
c. The interdiction of illegal drug trafficking has real after effects, although the destruction of drug carrying sea-going vessels are provoking political backlash, domestically and internationally.
d. The current U.S. President has engaged successfully the member nations of NATO to increase their individual contributions to the organization's defense - a clear reference to the threat of a potential expansion of the Russian-Ukraine war into Western Europe.
e. The Russian-Ukraine war is far from de-escalating. Instead, the potential for involvement by other nations increased.
f. Alliances are developing towards conflict preparation instead of in the direction of peaceful coexistence.
g. USA's switching back to naming its Department of Defense to what it was all along in the beginning to The Department of War is raising geopolitical eyebrows
h. The potential recognition of the Palestinian state by many countries that used to either oppose it or uncommitted one way or the other is increasing. This is not a trivial development especially in the wake of Israel's current ground offensive in the Gaza area.
i. The United Nations organization is now clearly almost losing its usefulness or almost irrelevant as separate alliances among nations are strengthening. Recently, the highly visible show put together by Russia, China and North Korea and a potential link to Iran has prompted the US and Great Britain to exhibit more than just a perceived affinity towards each other and among the British Commonwealth. Meanwhile, Europe is playing the NATO card and the economic alliance that is the European Union.
Separately or as possible combinations, the above can be regarded as potential fuels that could lead to either small isolated fires or widespread conflagration.
Refer to my last report where I said, "Indeed the world's a stage, actors all the same, although places differ, human nature prevails because lessons remain unlearned." Three actors that are identified as different alliances mentioned above are in place, the stage will be the Middle East.
I stand by my earlier estimate of between ten to fifteen years from today.
Seguey is signing off.
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