Existential

Much of humanity around the world, we are told, couldn't possibly ask for a better time to be alive than today.  Looking back, if we can somehow rewind the tapes of history, we certainly would not want to have lived in the Stone Age, the Bronze or Iron age. No, not even during the Age of Enlightenment after the Dark Ages, clearly not during the Reformation, and the Renaissance would still have been much too severe. 

We are the most successful species to have occupied the planet. We did it at the shortest amount of time relative to how long other species that preceded us were in existence.  500,000 years of existence for Hominid species are a blink of an eye compared to the 160 million years the dinosaurs had been around.  3.5 pounds of brain tissue were all it took to achieve dominance after a long period when only brute strength and size mattered.

You are today one of about twenty per cent of the total number of people who have ever lived. Ever. Let that sink in for a minute. Even more significantly astounding is that 99 % of all living things have become extinct, including every species of our hominid ancestors. Now, here we are marveling at our achievements that are unparalleled at any point in time before now. 

The question, of course, is that given the statistical history, how long can we hold on?

The phrase "Existential threat" used to be a serious warning only rarely invoked except within the circles of scientists and military strategists.  Today, it has become a trite expression, part of a hollow rhetoric overused by politicians and armchair pundits around the world.  It is heard so often, even at last night's U.S. vice-presidential debate, that the impact of its original meaning is lost forever.

From a couple of dozens of special issues I've kept of a variety of publications during the last two decades, I pulled out one recently from the bookshelf that was published two decades ago in October 2000.  Six pages were dedicated to, "Twenty Ways the World could End".  I was curious about how relevant they still are. Of the twenty ways, I was surprised to read, only six were labeled, "human triggered". Notably, "global warming" at number 9 of the total 20 then, was on top of all "Human-caused" disasters. From twenty years ago it has jumped to no. 1 today, if adherents to climate change are to be believed.

Readers may be familiar with what I wrote earlier, "In Awe of Climate".  I noticed from the readership stats that interest in it had picked up a bit recently from places outside the U.S.  There was no way for me to gauge though what reactions it is getting.

Today, if only temporarily, most disaster concerns have been sidelined by Covid 19. Global Epidemics was no.8 in that article from two decades ago.  Here is a quote: "If Earth doesn't do us in, our fellow organisms might be up to the task. Germs and people have always coexisted, but occasionally the balance gets out of whack. The Black Plague killed one European in four during the 14th century; influenza took at least 20 million lives between 1918 and 1919; the AIDS epidemic has produced a similar toll and is still going strong (that was in year 2000, of course).

We should keep in mind that, as epidemics go, including Covid 19, all pandemics have not really attained the strictest definition of existential threat.  34,986,502 cases of Covid 19 as of Oct 4 and 1,034,240 deaths, or about a 3% mortality rate in a population of 7 billion people is not anywhere near the estimated 20-30 million deaths from influenza when the world population then was just under 2 billion people.  We don't need to do the math to conclude that Covid 19, while definitely lethal and extremely infectious, is not as virulent as the previous ones. Naturally, we also need to account for better health care and widespread awareness to curve its spread.  Nevertheless, just by going through the mortality rate against confirmed cases, Covid 19 could be considered less deadly than the previous three.

Pandemics, by itself, is not an existential threat.  What then is the one that could cause our species to suffer the same fate similar to those of the 99 % that have disappeared from the face of the earth, that includes the Neanderthals, Cro-Magnon, Homo Habilis, etc.? 

After reviewing the list in that 2000 magazine issue, I will have to say that it will be a combination of several causes happening all at once or in succession for a global extinction to occur.  The top 8 on the list, by the way, were all natural disasters - no.1 being a repeat of what happened 67 million years ago that wiped out the dinosaurs - a major asteroid impact. According to research, mountain-size asteroids - Mt. Everest or bigger - had slammed into our planet earth every 50 to 100 million years during the last billion years.  It was far more common during the first three billion years, of course.  Alternating ice ages between global warming events have occurred several times based on rock and fossil records.  The last one was 11,700 years ago and we're due for another one, give or take 100 to 1000 years.

Interestingly, No. 18, 19 and 20 are under the heading, "A Greater Force is Directed Against Us".  No. 18 was an alien invasion (Stephen Hawking, famous physicist and author of the best selling, "Brief History of Time", was worried about it).  E.T., contrary to the movie, will be mean, according to Hawking.  No. 19 was Divine Intervention, prophesied in three major religions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam and separately in Zoroastrianism. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse from the Book of Revelation were represented in the list as war (no.15), famine, diseases (plague) and global conquest.  The Four Horsemen are what in most western and Middle East religions considered to symbolize what could in successional fashion befall humanity.

Well, this is year 2020. What should we be concerned about?  We can worry and, just so you know, we are the only species who can (worry) and we are the ones to have the sole chance to do something about it, or do we?  For sure, we are the only ones who can harbor hope like no other species can. Our dominion over all living things come with a huge responsibility.  Are we up to the task?  Let's look at population first,

"This article lists current estimates of the world population in history. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the late medieval period are in the following ranges:

Year	1400	1500	1600	1700	1800	1900	2000	2100[1]
population (in billions)	0.35–0.40	0.43–0.50	0.50–0.58	0.60–0.68	0.89–0.98	1.56–1.71	6.06–6.15	c. 10–13
growth p.a.[2]	>0%	<0.12%	0.15–0.3%	0.1–0.15%	0.3–0.5%	0.5–0.6%	1.3–1.4%	0.7–0.8%

World population did not reach 1 billion until about the end of the 1800's, early 1900's. We are at 7 billion today and by year 2100, it is estimated to get over 10 billion. The black horse ridden by one of the four horsemen represents famine. We are just using symbolisms here for illustration. 

We do not know what the breaking point is between 7 and 10 billion people but we do know that food production will be crucial between now and the next century.  Food shortage is one real existential component.  No.10 from the list was "Ecosystem Collapse', and No.14 was "Environmental Toxins" that could affect our ability to produce food.  

Not enough food for  a world population that will almost double up to 13 billion at the end of Year 2100 is an existential threat in and of itself  but taken together with another pandemic, wars and rumors of war, and conquests that follow, the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse may be more than allegorical symbolism.

We do not know. We cannot know. But we can hope.  We can have faith. At this point we may not have a choice but hope that it will be No. 19.    {see above, 7th paragraph from here}