Intersections and Divergences

Mundane human experiences, extraordinary events that shaped and reshaped the world, ordinary moments along the path each of us takes everyday, and so on and on, are a series of intersections and divergences. Individually, that is life. Collectively - for the  families, communities, entire nations, all the regions of the world that can be summed up, made of and  ultimately viewed as a landscape  of a woven fabric stitched by intersections and divergences -  it is  the fate of humanity. 

Meanwhile - the future being what it is, unknowable - known history has time and again failed to teach. Not that history was a bad teacher but because man had always steadfastly refused to learn from it.

July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania, an event occurred that was both an intersection and divergence  almost simultaneously. We can take the politics out of it for a different kind of approach beyond partisanship because this takes us to the inevitable realm of fate, faith, free will and the unfathomable questions, "What if, or what could have been?" or "Do we have a choice in the end?" The depth and breadth of the question is hard to grasp. But we try, anyway.  Let's see..

It is only fitting then that we keep politics out of this musing because what matters most will transcend beyond that and the present circumstances. 

I was encouraged to write this after I noticed a scattering of interests in readership lately of my previous musings, such as, "Year 2113", "2019 Flashback ... 2099 Predictions", "The Rise and Fall of Empires",  "All The World's A Stage", "USA, Don't Try To Be Argentina",  "MAD-deningly Unthinkable Road to Megiddo" - almost all about the past, except for "Year 2113".

Perhaps, the reason is some of the readers' concerns and trepidations about what is going on around the globe  today; the Middle East in particular.

Let's take a quick look back at certain events in history as we try to grapple with "What if?", or "What could have been?"

Alexander the Great died at 32 at the height of his power who planned to keep going after his empire had spread from the Balkans to today's area where modern Pakistan is. The cause of his death that followed days of excruciating pain is still being debated today by historians.  Did he die of natural causes or was he poisoned? Whatever the reason was, history was forever changed.  It was the beginning of the end of the once mighty Greek empire. But what if Alexander had gone on to live another ten, fifteen years? The world historical landscape may look different today.   

Alexander hastened the end of the Persian empire but did his abrupt exit ushered the birth of the Roman Republic and the creation of the Holy Roman Empire?

One undisputed assassination was that of Julius Caesar by conspirators right on the floor in the middle of the Roman Senate. That definitely changed the trajectory of world history as well as the beginning of the end of "The glory that was Rome". 

The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria led to the first world war in 1914 that brought to prominence for the first time the military power of modern Germany.  But that was not the end of the story because in just one generation after its defeat, a re-invigorated and more powerful Germany launched itself into another war - WWII.

While personally directing military strategies at his bunker, Hitler survived the famous assassination attempt with a planted bomb, by a group of German military conspirators disillusioned by the conduct of the war. Actually, Allied military strategists, according to some historical analysts, were against any plans to assassinate Hitler because it was best that he stayed alive and in direct command of Germany's war effort because he was actually terribly inept at prosecuting it.  The fear was that if he was killed during the middle of the war, a more competent general or some other German leader in his place could have conducted the war more effectively.  While that was  unknowable, it was true that close to 350,000 British and French troops at Dunkirk were rescued because Hitler refused to deploy the dreaded Panzer division to finish off the retreating Allied forces in 1941; almost all of those troops rescued later went back through Normandy to liberate Europe. When the landing at Normandy was under way, no one dared to wake Hitler up from his sleep for permission to reposition the same Panzer division to thwart the invasion at its early stage. We are again left with, "What if, what could have been" questions. 

Less than a century earlier in the new republic and soon to be an emerging superpower that was America a horrible event occurred. The country's 16th president was assassinated on April 15, 1865. Abraham Lincoln was pivotal in the conduct of the Civil War.  We ask again, what would have happened to America's story if he went on to finish his term and got re-elected? Unknowable. 

"On October 14, 1912, former U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt survived an assassination attempt .. the bullet lodged in Roosevelt's chest after penetrating Roosevelt's steel eyeglass case and passing through a 50-page-thick (single-folded) copy of his speech.."

"Theodore Roosevelt had ascended to the presidency on the assassination of William McKinley in 1901, serving the remaining 3 years 6 months of the term, and was then elected to a full term in the 1904 presidential election. He refused to run for another term in 1908, in accordance with the tradition established by George Washington.."

He decided to run again, four years later in 1912 because he was not happy with William Taft whom he endorsed earlier.  Woodrow Wilson won that election, albeit by a narrow margin over the fractured candidacies of Roosevelt and Taft.

What if JFK's assassination did not happen and he finished his term; what if he was re-elected, thereafter? What about if RFK was not assassinated and won.  Two presidents in a row with last names Kennedy? Imagine what America would be like today.

Those are twists and turns and "what could have been" in history that make us wonder whether the fate of the world was shaped by a handful of intersections and divergences that even today continue to unravel. Or, is our "future history" already inevitably set either by prophecy (beliefs via religious adherence) or through the consequences of man's actions or inactions.

Let's have one more quick look, then we go to the intended thesis.

On March 3, 1981, barely months in office after the 1980 election the previous November, Ronald Reagan was almost killed by an assassin that rendered his press secretary, James Brady, permanently brain damaged and two others injured. It turned out Reagan almost died from his injury.  Now, had he died he would not have been able to make his famous speech at the Brandenburg Gate in West Berlin six years later where he famously said, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!"  That speech precipitated the re-unification of both East and West Germany and the subsequent breakup of the old Soviet Union.

Intersections and divergences from events during the several decades  that followed brought us to where we are today. 

We have Russia trying to re-constitute its status in the world.  It was only a matter of time when a new leader would emerge, longing and pining for what used to be the old empire called the USSR.  The aftermath of the end of the cold war, the slow disintegration of the USSR for a decade or so that followed is now one bloody effort to put it back together. After Crimea, Vladimir Putin went for the biggest price.  He invaded Ukraine.  

While the west is busily saving the environment by curtailing the use of fossil fuel, Russia is using it to prop up its economy and finance its military while holding  western Europe hostage.  China, now a 21st century economic giant and arguably a military power, has in its best interest to secure a steady source for oil and an ally at the same time. Iran and its unwavering hatred for America and Israel became the inevitable third leg in the triangular Russia, China and Iran alliance. That is one powerful alliance that seems to have eluded notice and concern from the West, for now anyway,

Meanwhile, Germany, reeling from an economic downturn, is also finding ways to make alliances that (a) secures a reliable source for oil; (b) hedges its reliance from NATO (deemed untested, even unreliable in time of need) by going into a separate economic/security "arrangements" with Turkey and Syria. Both middle east countries have strategic seaports at both the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea.  Turkey is Europe's gateway to and from the middle east while Syria's oil will not have to go through the Suez Canal or the Persian Gulf (perilous Strait of Hormuz).

Why are these intersections important? Are these the precursors to what I referred to in, "MAD-deningly Unthinkable Road to Megiddo"? Indeed, why the concern for the middle east? The last two world conflicts, WWI and WWII, began and ended in Europe, with Asia in the second war a collateral participant when Japan allied with Germany. Of course, regional conflicts before and after had gone on for centuries where the so called theaters of war had no boundaries.  The Mongol invasion of Europe was cut short and stopped abruptly in Hungary upon the death of Ogedei Khan, son of and successor to Genghis Khan - first ruler of the Mongol empire.  

As I mentioned three years ago in an earlier note, "All the world’s a stage, And all the empires of men  merely players"; "They have their exits and their entrances". {borrowed from Shakespeare}

The middle east could be the final theater of war, man's last and final lesson because either we have at last learned or there is no one left to engage in any more battle. 

This next upcoming war is inevitable.  It will make all previous conflicts pale in scope and severity. But like all the previous conflicts during the last one hundred years, there will be signs of the tightening tension but we cannot know when it will snap.  

Iran is using its proxies to harass Israel, it has renewed its pledge of hatred against America, and it is awash with cash from oil revenues to fund its campaign. Its ability to acquire nuclear weapons is now enhanced by its alliance with two nuclear powers - Russia and China. Germany has made its strategic alliances in the middle east and if NATO fractures, it still has the option and ability to engage the European Union into a military alliance, free of influence from either the U.S. or Britain.  The U.S., England and the British Commonwealth (Canada, Australia, etc.) will remain tight with Israel.  

Using the 3-elements of combustion analogy we have  the Russia/China/Iran alliance; Germany/Turkey/Syria; U.S./British/Israel bond and along with each would be the other nations taking sides with one or the other two. If that happens the conflagration will be huge.

Antisemitism will escalate; there will be economic upheavals; food and resources shortage will occur; political instability will take place regionally. It will add fuel to the overheating tension.

Are those the players of the new world stage?  Will the unthinkable happen?  What significance, if any, can we attribute the intersection and divergence on July 13, at Butler, PA  to March 3, 1981 at the Hilton in Washington DC to the Brandenburg Gate in West Berlin six years later to  the world stage at some future date? The premise is neither here nor there outside of those who believe and whose reactions on July 13 and March 3, 1981 echoed the words, "providential, miraculous". Undeniably though, we know the U.S. is still very much a player in the world stage and the elected leader who will lead it will have a pivotal role.

We could easily run out of answers everywhere we look, except from the ones that we always fail to learn from.  When we run out of answers we are left with what was written centuries ago - history as written by man and the Biblical messages written for all of humanity (The book of Revelation, in particular).  It is a personal choice that I leave the reader to search on his or her own terms.