MAD-deningly Unthinkable

Much has already been said, conjectured, debated and feared about what happens next from one day to the next as the fighting in Ukraine continues. There is enough sadness, cruelty and pity to last anyone a lifetime of asking, "why?" Not only will we find it almost impossible to find answers, but what is most in everyone's mind is the uncertainty of what happens next.  That is the biggest unknown.  Instead, we are forced to face the MADdeningly unthinkable.  I upper-cased MAD for a reason.

MAD is an acronym for "mutually assured destruction".  There are a   few ways to look at that phrase.   Humanity is supposed to take comfort in the fact that nations are deterred from unleashing the unspeakable nuclear weapons of war because each side will most assuredly be destroyed. But we are at a point now where there is enough in the stockpile of nuclear arsenal from the handful of nations combined who have them  to annihilate the entire human race several times over. It is maddening enough and thoroughly unthinkable at the same time.

But why?  Just when memories of the cold war are almost forgotten even by those who lived through it, and clearly non-existent in the thoughts of the last two or three generations, we are faced with the stark reality that indeed none of all the so called existential threats that politicians and pundits from every corner of academia and society have warned us about will compare to the one most unthinkable possibility.

But why, indeed? I will get a lot of pushback from this musing but first I only ask the reader to bear with me for a bit.  

Just when hardly anyone can remember what ICBM stands for or that nobody might even remember what MIRV is, we are now faced with the idea that such vessels of destruction are still out there - sitting in their land based silos or cruising underneath the oceans in the bellies of nuclear powered submarines or beneath the wings of aircraft in undisclosed hangars from all over the world. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) are bad enough but what of the multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRV) that military euphemists tried so hard to give those harbingers of destruction a polite label. But there is no hiding the fact that a single payload can disgorge several independently programmed nuclear bombs upon re-entry into another land thousands of miles away with dead-on accuracy and devastation.

Again, why does humanity manage to get itself inextricably mired in the trajectory of self destruction?

First, let me get a partial quote from my last musing, innocuously titled Brigadoon.  I wrote about  the oldest tree in the world that had lived and still living for the last 5,000 years - The Great Basin Bristlecone pine:

The tree was a sapling right about when one of the pyramids in Egypt was completed, and perhaps over 2,000 years before the birth of Christ.

That tree, if it is tuned to what had gone on around the world since, had seen the growth of the world population, wars and pestilences, the shifting powers of conquerors and dictators, despots and notable leaders, beheld the plight of the enslaved and grimaced at the cruelty of the enslavers, and today is still a witness to what is going on in the Baltics, primarily what is happening in Ukraine and everywhere else.  Time may have stood still for that tree as generations upon generations of people had come and gone.

The tree, remaining standing still at one place, had witnessed the same theaters of war, protagonists of victorious conquerors and subjugated  peoples who fought over the same territories for centuries of repeated lessons unlearned, set aside and ignored.

Let me bring in here one of the famous generals who fought in the last world war - Gen. George S. Patton.  He had his admirers and detractors, his share of supporters and critics, and those who made note of, though others took it less seriously, his seemingly obsessive belief in reincarnation. Patton believed he would emerge victorious in his campaign in Europe because he had fought in the same battlefields over and over in his many incarnations as a warrior throughout history.

He intimated those beliefs to those close to him but he immortalized it in the poem he wrote, 

Through A Glass, Darkly by George S. Patton

Through the travail of the ages,

Midst the pomp and toil of war,

I have fought and strove and perished

Countless times upon this star.

In the form of many people

In all panoplies of time

Have I seen the luring vision

Of the Victory Maid, sublime.

There are a few more stanzas in between and he ended with:

So forever in the future,

Shall I battle as of yore,

Dying to be born a fighter,

But to die again, once more.

{The phrase "through a glass darkly" is a partial quote from Paul's letter to the Corinthians, 1, 12-13. Patton's poetry is unrelated to a movie of the same title}

Please read the verses one more time.

If the world manages somehow, or the powers that be will make it happen, we can all exhale a collective sigh of relief as if waking up from a nightmare. Are we then to fall asleep peacefully?

WWI ended on Nov. 11, 1918, after Germany surrendered four years after it started. It was so horrific that the Geneva Convention outlawed the use of chemical weapons.  It was supposed to be the war to end all wars.

But in just one generation, WWII broke out in 1939.  Lest we forget, Great Britain and France guaranteed the integrity of the borders of the Polish state on March 31, 1939. The following August, Germany (re-established as a military power once more) and the Soviet Union signed a non-aggression treaty. The following month Germany invaded Poland. Also, not to be forgotten, Japan earlier invaded Manchuria in 1931, then China in 1937.  In 1941, it declared war against the United States and went on a war campaign throughout the Pacific.

Both countries pledged after WWII, since affirmed in their respective constitutions, that they will not raise an army again, except for civil defense only.

Today, another chapter is being written. Western Europe just woke up to another specter of conflict that can conflagrate uncontrollably.  Russia, though far from a manufacturing economic power, wants to re-constitute its earlier empire in eastern Europe, using the hammer of petroleum at its disposal.  Japan is waking up to the looming economic power that is China that is flexing its military capabilities.

The question is: What are Germany and Japan to do? Germany is an economic heavyweight in Europe but a military weakling. Japan had lost its economic luster and clearly militarily defanged. Both are hearing from subtle voices that could be interpreted as a call to re-examine their constitutions to protect their interests.

If the world makes it through and temporary peace is achieved in the Balkans, we have much to be thankful for. However, we also have much to think about. Conditions will remain unchanged. In Europe, Russia will still have control of much of the oil to feed the contiguous economy of its neighbors to the west.  In Asia, China will continue to be the manufacturer of cheap merchandise for much of the world; cheap labor for the ever increasing demand for smartphones and electronics, tennis shoes and garments, etc. And it will have a mighty military power with nuclear weapons.  It is also home to a billion consumers of entertainment from western providers that are only too willing to acquiesce.

Much can be said of both Germany and Japan that despite being reduced to rubble after WWII, both made spectacular recoveries to get both their economies to unprecedented heights.  Japan may have weakened its economic dominance but it remains an economic force to reckon with, though now trailing behind S. Korea and China.

Germany and Japan, to be expected of any nation, will want to keep their economies strong in their respective regions but they will continue to lack the natural resources for material and energy. Add to that the potential of being cut off from both and they will be faced with the same trepidations pre - 1914 and 1939. Recent events are stark reminders of the same scenario.

I leave it to the readers to draw their own conclusions. 

We know so much about human nature and its inability to learn from its past. Through the pages of history, we know that it takes only one future charismatic leader, one mad man, who can lead a dedicated group of people waywardly to plunge right back into the maddeningly unthinkable idea of re-armament in the midst of regional instability.  It had happened twice before in recent history. 

It would seem alarmist to think this way but fast-forward to two decades from today and will the reader think the same way?

What about the Great U.S. of A? Will it once again become the peace agent and arbiter of world conflict as it had done twice before?  Would it have the will to reprise its role in WWI and WWII.  

Will it be its old self in 2050? I refer to what I wrote on Oct. 5, 2021, "2050: The Ebb of the Tragic Trajectory of a Once Powerful Nation".

I remain hopeful that none of what I fear will happen.  But a portrait of a dark scenario is what we need to awaken to the reality of the maddeningly unthinkable in order for us - collectively as a whole - to realize the folly of our nature and to pray and work hard towards goodwill among all.

Are we to be complacent or hopeful based on this quote from Matthew 24:6, From the New Testament, KJV

"And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet".