1999 Flashback ... 2099 Predictions?

Not too long ago I ran across from old magazines I've kept over the years one particular issue of Scientific American which grabbed my attention in the midst of most recent events. I had wanted to bring along one or two reading materials for a flight and the subheading on one magazine read as shown in photo below.

"THE FLU: NEW DRUGS BEAT KILLER VIRUSES"

Alas, like how headlines are often misleading or even disappointing, the so called new drugs were experimental and hopeful promises.

You may all have heard or read about Bill Gates' warning on viruses five years ago on his TED talk in 2015.  But this magazine, published twenty-one years earlier, was talking about the flu virus - a "bug" - and, of course, what was then the other bug - the famous or infamous, depending on one's opinion, the Y2K bug.  I say depending on one's opinion on the latter because Y2K was either much ado about nothing or indeed it was something worth all the hoopla to prevent one tech disaster.

Anyway, the magazine talked about possible breakthroughs on the flu virus.  That was over two decades ago and we all know the futility of such a quest - a lifetime vaccine is still not available, except for an annual shot to account for the virus mutation and variable strain -  and how easily it was forgotten until something like Covid 19 came along. As in most everything, society had and will always have a short memory.  September 11, or 9-11, 2001, not only has faded from our attention, opinions and attitudes rapidly changed or were revised for us by whoever has the podium or effective punditry.  Now, what used to be one uniting glue that held a nation together is now garbled by arguments and counter arguments that is no longer even relevant to today's new generation.

The quest for potential cures against the flu and viruses of all kinds and the urgency that it then had, sort of went by the wayside, as far as the public is concerned, or by the amount of attention and progress in the scientific and research community.  The context here is that unlike the measles vaccine or lifetime immunity from chickenpox after an infection, the flu vaccine has to be "renewed" annually.

Now, we have Covid 19. Lethal, compared to previous scourges in history, or is it just another of those soon to fade away from people's memories? This one though may forever change the course of the future of humanity.

We turn from the flashback of 1999 to what the world may look like in 2099.  This is assuming that Covid 19 is really that impactful and that we set aside the distinct possibility that it will be like any other of those events that are soon forgotten or whose present effects get swept under by the myriad other future occurrences that might effectively distract or re-direct our attention once again.  We can also assume that viruses will remain formidable as they have always been for the eons of time that they had existed and their ability to thwart every conceivable effort to stop them remains true.  And let us not forget that even bacteria that can be controlled by antibiotics exhibit invincibility. Hence, the nickname, "superbug" for some strain that is able to resist the common antibiotics.

1. The Medical Field

Yesterday was one turning point that could signal what medicine will look like.  I had my first video consultation with my primary care physician. And it worked.  With some caveat, of course.  Last week I got a call from my primary care doctor's office to schedule a video visit. It was going to be the first half of my annual physical.  Contrary to what it used to be, the stethoscope, the hospital gown, the physical probing and actual exam is only part of the annual check up.  More importantly, blood work and other lab tests are more significant together with the review of current medications and the discussion that follows. Electronic records are first reviewed by the doctor who checks into how current the patient's vaccinations are and how up to date other recurring procedures like colonoscopy, etc are conducted on schedule.  A good doctor also needs to probe into the patient's general state of mind and current emotional status, worries and concerns.  The conversation with the doctor is actually just as significant, which the video chat successfully accomplished.  That is how it went. Later I will go for blood work and urine specimen submission at a date after the crisis is over.  Meanwhile, the doctor sees patients from the comfort of his home-office while the patient is saved from having to drive and endure the waiting room routine.

Someday, video consultations will be so common, convenient and less time consuming. I recall a time when a wasp bite or allergic reaction to poison ivy could have been short circuited by a photo or video shot of the symptoms electronically relayed to the primary doctor who will immediately re-direct my visit straight to an allergist or emergency center (if the wasp sting needed immediate mediation), bypassing the visit to the primary doctor's office altogether.  I teased my doctor if someday Star Trek technology will not be far behind.  He concurred, it will be here someday.

2. The New Social Setting, The Real Cultural Revolution

There is no predicting what new technology will emerged.  But we can take a stab at what to expect from the new social constructs and cultural effects to follow after Covid 19.  If not totally eliminated, the handshake could be the thing of the past.  The Asian practice, such as the Japanese bow or the upright hands together, prayer-like, as practiced in India and Thailand, for example, are a great greeting alternative or sign of respect or reverence.  The hug that is a most recent widely practiced  phenomenon may suffer some kind of trend reversal.

It used to be that to be socially distant was not such a pleasant personal attribute but now social distancing shall be the first line of defense against future outbreaks of socially transmittable diseases or the better and prudent conduct for avoiding common infections.  What I will not comment on is romance related or what will happen on first and subsequent early dates.  Will holding hands be permissible?  Is the first kiss ... like I said, I won't comment.

"Crowd" will mostly be used along the modern phrase like crowd-funding or crowd sourcing but, as a matter of social policy, the crowd is to be avoided.

3. The Job, Businesses, The Economy, The Corporate Environment

The 1-2 hour commute to work could be a thing of the past for half of the future employees.  Before Covid 19, folks commute to and from work on average 1-2 hours round trip.  Much longer in densely populated urban-centered workplaces.  Before all of these we know that many workers drive to the office to be in their work station or office or cubicle and conduct their business looking at and working the keyboard and mouse and communicating mostly via e-mail or text.  In other words, they drive, endure traffic and the occasional weather, pollute the air, or suffer the inevitable crowd of mass-transit, and sit on a chair to do their task.  Today, we find out that they can do much of what they do every day using their desk and computer at home.

Factory jobs will remain but automation and robots will far outnumber people.  It is even conceivable some of these workers can "supervise" the robots from home.

Even more profound would be that new types of jobs not now currently even envisioned and new products never before manufactured will be done by workers doing jobs that do not yet exist today.  A lot of the economies will forever be altered to suit future needs. 

Companies that have so called headquarters can eliminate the expense of renting and maintaining downtown buildings, energy consumption on heating and cooling and  do away with the dreaded time-wasting annual fire drills and other emergency evacuation training.  Just think about this.  Corporation can divert the general headquarter expense towards providing employees the necessary electronic tools at home, give them "office" allowance for using their home/office and bolster morale through that economic incentive and with the employee saving more money by not commuting (except perhaps during the occasional meetings).

What about accountability or employee performance?  Actually, it will be a lot easier.  Targets can still be established and performance reviewed based solely on results.  The office politics will be a thing of the past. 2099 is roughly only three generations from now, so technology will help remove a lot of non-performance-related issues.

A lot of downtown jobs will go away, of course.  Watering holes and places to eat will melt away like ice cubes over a hot plate but social distancing in crowded restaurants will be 100% eliminated. Company sponsored health care costs will go down as insurance premium is re-adjusted and three-martini lunches are history forever.  Take out dining services will surge a hundred fold.

Rest assured the service industry will still remain untouched and so are jobs relating to all that cater to personal needs.  Unless everybody goes bald and stopped growing finger nails and toe nails, hair and beauty salons and barbershops will still exist, and we will continue to eat, so dentists and hygienists and internal medicine doctors, etc. will be around.  Plumbers and electricians will still be needed but sadly, there will be no need for dog walkers. Drones and bots will do that.  Auto shops will go away.  Not only will people be driving less, if something goes wrong car owners will just go get new batteries as they do now with the cordless drill and their future dog walkers.

Online ordering of paper products will generally be a good thing.  No more wrestling with those 4X4 behemoths multi-pack rolls of toilet and towel paper from wholesale clubs. Hoarding will be eliminated because online merchants not only can track your ordering average from normal usage so they can also appropriately limit them in time of another virus outbreak.  Actually, the county tax assessor's office will have the same information too since it knows the number of bathrooms in your home based on the property record registered under your name.  The Bureau of Census (currently collecting 2020 data) knows how many people are in your household so paper product hoarding will indeed be a thing of the past if such information is allowed as an anti-hoarding tool.

Either that or all future homes are required to be equipped with bidet only as a cleaning feature when cutting of trees is declared illegal and the paper manufacturing business is kaput.

4. Education and All Information Service Related Activities

Everything will be online so Google and You Tube had taken over the Library and all Federal and local records offices.  Fake news will have but a day's worth of currency since every information can be checked out with a few keystrokes or click of a mouse. Actually it could come to a point where fake news may travel only from its source by no more than seven screen views when it is wiped out immediately.  Remember, we're still talking about what to expect in 2099.  

The Teacher's Union may not like this but online education will be the thing.  Every child will be home schooled by Professor Bot. Once a year the old school building will be used by students coming in to take a qualifying test for the next grade level or for graduation.  Each home will have one room dedicated as a classroom - each grade level is represented by one desk and a monitor for each student and age group. No more school bullying and school buses and cafeteria food will no longer be the dietary scapegoat that  parents and teachers have come to believe nor will it ever be the source of torment by cliquish groups against loners and "weird" classmates.

Unemployed psychiatrists will work on social adjustment programs for students not able to relate to their peers or other people in general due to the inevitable lack of regular social interactions.  In 2099, who needs it? Well, unemployed psychiatrists will then be unemployable, will they? 

5. Sports and Entertainment

If the movie theater is not dead yet it is likely on life support.  By 2099, people will be talking about it as folks today reminisce about the the drive-in theater. Its demise can no longer be postponed and the days of the overpriced concession popcorn and watered down soda are deemed forever a thing of the past. In 2099 the multi-million dollar per movie actors today will be replaced by a group of movie animators and CGI techies who will produce screen actors and backdrops and panoramic scenes so unbelievably more realistic than can be experienced live by moviegoers. The new superstars will be known by their group name since it is likely such realism and complexity can only be done collaboratively.  No single actor will ably embarrass himself or herself during awards night since such events will no longer exist.

The new super athletes will be the descendants of today's gamers. They will be playing video sports - from baseball to football to basketball to hockey, etc - that will be viewed not by paying fans at a 70,000 seat stadium but by millions around the world via big screen TV and whose cheers and taunts will be collectively picked up and reproduced over the internet viewing arena and heard more thunderously than a measly 70,000 screaming fans at the stadium. 

Today's athletes will forever be used as CGI models of tomorrow.  But their athleticism will also be enhanced beyond what is currently doable. The days of stale peanuts, cold sandwiches and warm expensive beer and exorbitant parking fees will be etched in future history the way silent pictures and speakeasies are remembered today.

6. Wars and Rumors of War

If humanity makes it to 2099, then maybe it finally did the right thing or had come to its collective senses to make war an extinct longing for domination.  That is the biggest bet anyone - politician or ordinary citizen - could make today. To win that bet means what 2099 might look like as predicted here.  To lose that bet means humanity may never see 2099.

I think we've covered enough although I can think of several other scenarios as I'm sure every reader will as well.  To say that Covid 19 is a learning episode in our history will be an understatement.

Three generations from today will either have benefited or go through the same amnesia that previous ones were prone to suffer from.  The good news is humanity's ability to actually remember and acknowledge past mistakes and it is only by those little nuggets of truth that a handful of individual leaders in the past , today and hopefully in the future, did and will rely upon to insure 2099 happens.