At the dawn of every new year we wish peace and goodwill toward men. There are approximately 7 billion people on earth now. What happens when it gets to 10 billion? And 20 billion?
A friend wrote to me about what had been a perplexing point for him to ponder. Where would the population be today had there been no wars, natural disasters and epidemics throughout our history. That is an intriguing question because millions upon millions perished during the Black Plague, the Spanish flu, to name just a couple of pandemics; and from the two World Wars, and those killed by oppressive regimes before and afterwards. Had those deaths not occurred and even if just a fraction of those people had lived full lives to have families and children, the logarithmic increases in population is something to behold. Where would we be today? For sure we would have passed 7 billion a long time ago. Hypothetically we could already have exceeded 10 billion by now. That is, of course, all hypothetical. But suffice it to say that hypothetically we would be dealing with exceedingly serious population numbers by now. But that didn't happen.
Not that 7 billion people is a small number. But it is what we have today. If all those wars and natural calamities were part of the sorting out processes, historians had to deal with all kinds of questions. One of the answers to those questions, perhaps the one that has the most impact when all is said and done, is what we face today. 7 billion is the answer.
If we look backwards in time we find the steps that took us to today's 7 billion. It is not 10 billion because millions had perished before they had a chance at the fullness of life. Instead, the pages of history were written much too differently and the reality is what we have today. Today was shaped by a history of wars, famine, diseases, the creation and reversal of fortunes that kept shifting between kingdoms, borders, nations and alliances of nations. In effect, it was all those and then some that gave us today's world of 7 billion people. 7 billion is indeed the answer. This brings us to another set of questions moving forward.
We have the natural - more specifically the biological - reasons and then we have the social and economic and, of course, political questions to answer moving into the future.
From the purely biological perspective, let's look at this example. When the population of voles (rodent family) in a particular habitat is severely reduced for one reason or another, the owls (their main predator) in the area either raise only one chick, or none at all during the breeding period, whereas they can raise as much as three or four when their prey is plentiful. This is repeated in all kinds of prey/predator relationships everywhere. In cases where predators had gone on to unsustainable proportions relative to prey, the overlapping of territories cause them to kill one another. Simplistic, even cruel as that might sound, that has been the story of survival.
We are able to detach from that today and we even squirm at the prospect of equating ourselves to that story because, well, we are civilized. We elevated ourselves to the pinnacle of all living things now, but lest we forget it was just a few thousand years ago that all that regulated the fate of our ancestors were what nature dictated. Early fossil and archaeological records only described what all seemed to be natural behaviors just barely above all the other creatures. The constant search for food and suitable habitat propelled migrations and those who survived were defined by their ability to adapt and, more importantly, by their success at organizing themselves into territories, kingdoms, and nations and alliances of nations. Where the 7 billion live today is a function of who settled where or when those who had the technology to do so determined how the rest of the lands and bodies of water were found and settled and defended.
If 7 billion is the answer, here is what we ask ourselves. Amidst the sophistication of our so called society, the intelligence we had amassed over centuries of learning, the development of morality and a compassionate society, why have we not moved farther away, even by just a bit, from the edge of a precipitous conflict that can wipe out the entire 7 billion. There is enough nuclear arsenal, biological and chemical weapons to cause the entire population to perish several times over. When we think about it, civilized society has never been in such peril. The headlines aside, for every discussion towards peace, preparation for war has a budget allocated a thousand fold more than peaceful programs. And that is because world leaders, especially those who have the most arsenal, find preparing for war their justification for more effective weapons so that peace can be maintained. The idea of mutually assured destruction or MAD, for short, is the very definition of global madness. Proponents of this philosophy assure the world that indeed it is because of that that it had been almost three quarters of a century now since the last World War. True, perhaps but ...
The lessons of history are written by the victors of conflict that shaped the story line. Unfortunately for the world today there are way too many would-be authors, who would rather write a different narrative, a spectacular one at that. The danger, of course, is that the pages of our future history may never be written at all because there will be no one to write them, let alone readers to read them. Yes, you read it right. If we are not careful we will be writing ourselves into extinction.
Why such a dark and gloomy forecast. It would be because maybe humanity has yet to acknowledge that perhaps it is not capable to govern itself, not ever. Tried as it did, idealism and two world organizations aside - first, the League of Nations and now the seemingly inutile U.N - humanity is still struggling for answers on how best to manage itself.
7 billion people are waiting for answers to the question : Why?
This New Year will be no different from all the other new years now permanently etched into the pages of history but maybe there is hope. Hope that all 7 billion people will indeed ask and pray for goodwill towards all. If man does not have the answers, is it not time to ask Someone else?
Happy New Year to Each and Everyone of You.
A friend wrote to me about what had been a perplexing point for him to ponder. Where would the population be today had there been no wars, natural disasters and epidemics throughout our history. That is an intriguing question because millions upon millions perished during the Black Plague, the Spanish flu, to name just a couple of pandemics; and from the two World Wars, and those killed by oppressive regimes before and afterwards. Had those deaths not occurred and even if just a fraction of those people had lived full lives to have families and children, the logarithmic increases in population is something to behold. Where would we be today? For sure we would have passed 7 billion a long time ago. Hypothetically we could already have exceeded 10 billion by now. That is, of course, all hypothetical. But suffice it to say that hypothetically we would be dealing with exceedingly serious population numbers by now. But that didn't happen.
Not that 7 billion people is a small number. But it is what we have today. If all those wars and natural calamities were part of the sorting out processes, historians had to deal with all kinds of questions. One of the answers to those questions, perhaps the one that has the most impact when all is said and done, is what we face today. 7 billion is the answer.
If we look backwards in time we find the steps that took us to today's 7 billion. It is not 10 billion because millions had perished before they had a chance at the fullness of life. Instead, the pages of history were written much too differently and the reality is what we have today. Today was shaped by a history of wars, famine, diseases, the creation and reversal of fortunes that kept shifting between kingdoms, borders, nations and alliances of nations. In effect, it was all those and then some that gave us today's world of 7 billion people. 7 billion is indeed the answer. This brings us to another set of questions moving forward.
We have the natural - more specifically the biological - reasons and then we have the social and economic and, of course, political questions to answer moving into the future.
From the purely biological perspective, let's look at this example. When the population of voles (rodent family) in a particular habitat is severely reduced for one reason or another, the owls (their main predator) in the area either raise only one chick, or none at all during the breeding period, whereas they can raise as much as three or four when their prey is plentiful. This is repeated in all kinds of prey/predator relationships everywhere. In cases where predators had gone on to unsustainable proportions relative to prey, the overlapping of territories cause them to kill one another. Simplistic, even cruel as that might sound, that has been the story of survival.
We are able to detach from that today and we even squirm at the prospect of equating ourselves to that story because, well, we are civilized. We elevated ourselves to the pinnacle of all living things now, but lest we forget it was just a few thousand years ago that all that regulated the fate of our ancestors were what nature dictated. Early fossil and archaeological records only described what all seemed to be natural behaviors just barely above all the other creatures. The constant search for food and suitable habitat propelled migrations and those who survived were defined by their ability to adapt and, more importantly, by their success at organizing themselves into territories, kingdoms, and nations and alliances of nations. Where the 7 billion live today is a function of who settled where or when those who had the technology to do so determined how the rest of the lands and bodies of water were found and settled and defended.
If 7 billion is the answer, here is what we ask ourselves. Amidst the sophistication of our so called society, the intelligence we had amassed over centuries of learning, the development of morality and a compassionate society, why have we not moved farther away, even by just a bit, from the edge of a precipitous conflict that can wipe out the entire 7 billion. There is enough nuclear arsenal, biological and chemical weapons to cause the entire population to perish several times over. When we think about it, civilized society has never been in such peril. The headlines aside, for every discussion towards peace, preparation for war has a budget allocated a thousand fold more than peaceful programs. And that is because world leaders, especially those who have the most arsenal, find preparing for war their justification for more effective weapons so that peace can be maintained. The idea of mutually assured destruction or MAD, for short, is the very definition of global madness. Proponents of this philosophy assure the world that indeed it is because of that that it had been almost three quarters of a century now since the last World War. True, perhaps but ...
The lessons of history are written by the victors of conflict that shaped the story line. Unfortunately for the world today there are way too many would-be authors, who would rather write a different narrative, a spectacular one at that. The danger, of course, is that the pages of our future history may never be written at all because there will be no one to write them, let alone readers to read them. Yes, you read it right. If we are not careful we will be writing ourselves into extinction.
Why such a dark and gloomy forecast. It would be because maybe humanity has yet to acknowledge that perhaps it is not capable to govern itself, not ever. Tried as it did, idealism and two world organizations aside - first, the League of Nations and now the seemingly inutile U.N - humanity is still struggling for answers on how best to manage itself.
7 billion people are waiting for answers to the question : Why?
This New Year will be no different from all the other new years now permanently etched into the pages of history but maybe there is hope. Hope that all 7 billion people will indeed ask and pray for goodwill towards all. If man does not have the answers, is it not time to ask Someone else?
Happy New Year to Each and Everyone of You.
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