A Story Never Once Told Till Now

This is a story that needed to be told. Up to this moment no one else has known about it. I have not told anyone. Not my closest friends. Not my wife even. But it must be told now.

It happened a long time ago.  By right, this should have been forgotten, never to be heard by anyone else.  Never to be discussed.  But, I'm afraid I must. 

I was twelve years old when this story began as the long, lazy days of summer were about to end in 1958. I was actually excited for the new school year later that June when I and the rest of the baby boomers (those born immediately after the war - WWII) were about to enter high school. What we called the summer break at the end of the school year had nothing to do with the seasonal summer as known in temperate countries. The Philippines, like all the Pacific countries that lie along and near the equator only have two seasons - dry and wet.  Where I was born in one of the central islands of the Philippine archipelago, the two-month break between school years was merely dubbed summer just to be consistent with American education, upon which our school system was based.  The end of a school year usually fell in the middle of April and the start of the new school year began in mid-June. 

The seaside barrio of the island where I grew up was sparsely populated with no more than a couple thousand people, almost half of which were children and teenagers. So,  everyone knew everyone.  Except for the  family that lived in a big house that stood out and a bit away from among the nipa huts and shanties.  That house somehow survived the war and the Japanese occupation.  It had a concrete wall and an iron gate fronting the street. The back that was facing the sea only had a picket fence and some shrubs and tall grasses.  Only  coconut trees and a few meters of white sand separated the back  from the surf. 

Typical of any beach, during  low tide a good swath of what's beneath the waves during high tide would be exposed to an ankle-deep watery sand, stones and rocks encrusted with barnacles, oysters, moss and seaweed.  It is during low tide when a handful of us boys would join many other locals to explore and exploit whatever was exposed by the receding sea.  There were small crabs and fish caught in tidal pools but what some  young kids and I did was to dig for clams that were under the sand.  But we didn't just dig randomly because there was strategy and technique involved. We had long bamboo sticks, the length and rigidity of a cane with a pointy metal tip fastened to the bottom end.  Beneath the wet sand or even with about an inch of water was where we would use the stick like a blind person would do when walking. We poked and probed the sand left to right, right to left, while pacing forward with our attention focused at each strike.  If the stick hits an area where there is clam underneath we'd see water squirt upwards.  That happens when the clam feels threatened. It rapidly forces water out through a tube-like appendage as it retracts that part of its anatomy downwards. That action helps it to burrow a bit farther down the soft, sometimes muddy sand. That's where we will dig to get the clam.

One afternoon I was by myself because none of the other boys were around.  There was a scattering of people who were busy doing whatever it was they were occupied with. I too must have been preoccupied as well by going a little farther away from where we usually went, unaware until I looked towards the beach. I  realized I was standing right at the back of the big house. 

Just outside the fence and under a coconut tree was a young girl who I imagined was my age hunched over something on  the sand.  She looked up and saw me staring at her.  She waved her hand for me to come over.  As I got closer she picked up an injured bird from the ground. She said that maybe one of the boys from somewhere nearby had hit it with a slingshot.  One wing was stretched out away from its body and I saw a bit of blood.

"What's going on out there?" said a voice coming from inside the fence.  It was from a lady of about fifty or sixty years. If she was that age she was old, I thought. But her light brown skin was smooth and wrinkle free.  

"We found this injured bird mama", I was surprised she said "we".  She summoned us both to bring the bird over.  She held it close to her face for maybe a minute or so while blowing her breath to the bird.  Then she gave it to her daughter.

"It's fine. Let go and it will fly away."  Sure enough, the bird flew away quickly and away. It happened so fast I was stunned to even say anything. Anyhow, she then said, looking at me, "This here is Adelina, my daughter", pointing at the girl.  Then Adelina said, "She's my mother and I have two older sisters".  

"You tell us your name and I will have  some bread and guava jelly for you two." I said my name.  "May I wash my hands from that faucet there"?, I asked.  

Adelina went inside the house following her mother.  Shortly after that, in about a couple of minutes, Adelina came back followed by the maid with a plate of sliced bread with a saucer of guava jelly. The maid said she'll come back with some soft drinks.  I knew Adelina noticed my eyes widened at the sight of the snack as the maid set it on the small outdoor table.  The plate with the bread  was a thick gold rimmed white China with matching saucer filled with guava jelly and fine silver teaspoon and knife on the side.  It was one unforgettable merienda for a boy used to nothing but boiled yam or banana or cold leftover rice topped with coarse brown sugar for snacks.  But Adelina hardly ate at all; instead, she just watched me with an easy smile framed by strands of jet-black hair that draped along the contours of her smooth, light brown face.  Actually she had a much fairer  skin than most Filipinos but nonetheless a true Filipina beauty.

I bade my goodbye to Adelina as the sun was about to sink over the horizon. I remember those beautiful sunsets. "I will tell mama that you said goodbye", when I turned my face towards the backdoor of the house.

I was so excited to tell everyone at home when I got back though I skipped the part about the injured bird. My mother was not too happy.  She said, "Don't ever go back there again." 

"Why?" I asked back.

"We don't know those people.  They are very strange and they also don't want to be part of this barrio. Do you see them come around even during fiesta?"

"But.."

My mother interrupted me, "Just don't ever go back there ever again, all right?"

I obediently heeded her admonition. The days went by fast as the new school year came. I was excited about high school but at the same time intimidated by having to compete with students who  finished from the different elementary schools from around the entire city and nearby towns who will also enroll in the one big high school. Our entire sixth grade class was twenty-two students.  The freshman class of the provincial public high school had twenty four sections of twenty to twenty five students each. Those who did well based on their sixth grade performance in elementary made Section One of the freshman class. Maintaining high grades to stay in Section One was what mattered most, we were told early on.

One mid afternoon I was at the school library doing some reading when from the left corner of the table I heard a voice, "Hi, you remember me?" 

It was Adelina. 

"You look surprised to see me". Indeed, I was.  There she was wearing the high school girls' uniform of white blouse and pleated maroon skirt. I expected her to go to the one private Catholic school blocks away from the public high school, so I didn't particularly look for her within our school.

"Shall we talk outside?  If the driver comes early I don't want him looking for me. So, why haven't I seen you out there in the surf?  I've actually looked many times to see if you were out there digging for clams."

"Actually, I avoided going  near your home.  I mean.."

"Mean what?"

"You know I live in one of those nipa huts out there at the end of the road further down from your home.  None of the houses there have electric lights. No electricity, period. And the clams I'd bring home were often part of dinner."

"Wait, are you embarrassed about all that? Before I could say anything, she said, "Oh here's the driver now.  And Mama too. I have to go."

That was it for  weeks that followed. I was focused on school. To stay in Section One meant maintaining good grades. And there are those in the lower sections striving to get elevated to Section One so the possibility was real and so was the embarrassment of demotion to Section Two, or worse, Section Four and beyond.

Every now and then  Adelina and I would run into each other.  It was a big school and she was a sophomore already so our classes hardly intersected. Sometimes she'd invite me to the school cafeteria if our breaks between classes coincided, but she had friends with her and she secretly paid for my snack without the other girls knowing it. I mean, I hardly had ten centavos in my pocket. 

Later though, I'd make excuses not to meet up with her and her friends anymore. She knew I was avoiding her.

It was almost near the end of the school year when Adelina caught up with me as I was heading to the exit gate to walk home.

"Hi. Are you still mad at me?"

"No, why should I be?" 

"Listen. School will soon end. I'd like to talk to you before the long break from school  begins. Tomorrow, Friday, my mom and two sisters will go to the hacienda early.  The driver will be back to pick me up from school in the afternoon but we won't leave together with the two maids till the following morning. I'd like you to have an early dinner with me tomorrow  at home. I promise you will be back to your family by sunset."

Somehow, I said yes, ignoring what my mother said. 

The following afternoon as the bell rang I gathered my books and ran to the front of the main school building.  There was a big black car and a hand was waving from the open rear window. 

"You didn't have to run.  I just got here myself". 

The driver, glancing at the rear view mirror said, "This is your first time to ride in a car, isn't it?"

That set Adelina to a controlled fury I did not expect. "Why don't you just drive us home.  There is no need to insult my friend that way. We pay you to just drive, that is all you have to do." It was a short drive really but the long silence that followed made  it painfully long.

By the time we got out of the car Adelina was back to her usual cheery mood.  The driver said something about the time of the morning he will be back for the drive to the hacienda. Adelina said, "Come a little bit early so you can have your breakfast here".  The driver smiled, said yes, and looked at me as if to say sorry. I motioned as if to say it was nothing.

"Sit down.  We'll start eating at before five, is that all right?"

"Sure," I said, almost absentmindedly as I marveled at the "sala" which means living room or receiving area of a big house. There was white polished marble floor and thick, heavy  drapes around, some paintings and small corner tables where there were corners.

The maid came with two glasses of cold water and some thinly sliced ham. "Don't eat too much of that so you don't spoil your appetite,"  Adelina said smiling.

"I know you probably have some questions to ask me.  Perhaps, why am I in a public high school instead of the private La Consolacion Catholic School?  My two sisters went there before the war and then went on to study in Madrid.  You see, our father together with my two sisters left for Spain just before the war started.  My mother was to follow but then after Pearl Harbor and the bombing of Manila the next day, she was not able to leave.  I was born in 1944 just as the war was winding down."

"My two sisters came back in 1946 without father.  He died there of a heart attack in 1945. I see that puzzled look in your face. That makes me two years older than you.  I'm fourteen. 

"Yes."

"My mother met another man who helped her manage the haciendas while my sisters and father were in Spain. So, Florinda and Esperanza are my half sisters. They're twenty three and twenty four years old now. You don't need to know the details about my birth.  Nobody really paid attention during the chaos of the war when my mother was pregnant with me. She stayed at the hacienda, secluded and away from those who knew her."

The maid announced that dinner was ready.

Adelina continued talking as we headed to the dining area. "As you can see, I am all Filipina, unlike my two mestiza sisters. My mother wanted me to go to the public high school and I wanted to as well.  That is why I am not at La Consolacion."

There was a twelve-seat dining table at the huge dining area but food was laid out for us on a square table next to a window.  I have not seen  so much meat served on the table that way.  There was sinigang of meat and vegetable and meats cooked adobo style and one plate with grilled pork.

Adelina talked and ate but she did it with such grace I hardly noticed  her mouth full. It was a new experience for me, to say the least. 

I was so full I barely touched the mango dessert.

She spoke for just a bit about her two sisters and their father. Their father was one of the  Spanish land barons who owned much of the haciendas that grew sugar cane. Florinda and Esperanza took more from their father. She showed me the picture frame on the wall. They were typical Spanish mestizas, half Spanish, half Filipina.  They looked beautiful, I thought, a most perfect blend of the two races. But Adelina was really pretty,  and I told her that. She blushed and thanked me for saying it.

It was close to six o'clock by the time we finished.  She understood I had to leave as the sun was setting. I walked home disbelieving what just happened.  I had to come up with a good excuse for coming home late and an even better excuse for not eating as much during dinner.

I didn't see Adelina for the next two months. She did tell me that the family would be spending more time at the hacienda or go on trips to Manila for  much of the two months that school was out. She mentioned about being excited at becoming a junior in high school next year and can't really wait to be in college. My prospect for college was a 50-50 possibility, I told her. She had some encouraging words for me at dinner that one late afternoon but I really can't remember what they were. 

I saw her  the weekend before the start of the new school year.

That afternoon I went to dig for clams during the afternoon low tide. I wasn't really into it other than to walk near Adelina's home. My heart beat faster when I saw her waving for me to come over.

"I will be away for good.  Sadly, I must and you won't see me after today forever."

"What?"

"I will tell you later tonight.  Make some excuse at home but be here at around nine. Come through the back.  I know the moon is out and it's going to be dark but please come."

Then out the back door, her two sisters appeared. Yes, indeed, they were gorgeous and tall. One said, "So, this is your friend. Hi, she said.  I'm Florinda and this is Esperanza.  Good to meet you. We're running late Adelina, you need to change quickly.  We're going out. We don't want mother to come out here to get us, do we? So sorry we have to go but it was good to meet you at last."

I was too, I said.  Adelina smiled, fluttering her fingers as if to say, "Later". Then all three turned towards the door.  

I mustered the best excuse I could come up with. I told my parents that I and several friends will get together that evening to bid goodbye to the last day of vacation from school. My parents bought it but I must be home by no later than 10:00.  Ten o'clock at night was really late, so my parents were very permissive that evening. In those days people were mostly in bed by nine.

I brought the flashlight.  That was not unusual back then when there were no street lights on unpaved paths. I did go see some friends who were just hanging out at a friend's backyard. I needed to have my story straight in case my parents checked later. I reached Adelina's home through the back.  Their home was dark except for the light downstairs.  Then I saw the door open. Adelina waved me in.

She explained that the maids are usually allowed  one weekend a month away to be with their families. "They sleep at the maid's quarter, of course, on most days but not tonight. There's nobody but me and you .."

"What about your mother and sisters?"

"That's what I was going to talk to you about.  Come upstairs.  Use your flashlight so we don't have to turn the lights on." We reached the upstairs foyer and Adelina pointed to a door.  "This room here is always locked. Nobody goes in here.  The three other bedrooms we use. I sleep in one and my sisters sleep in the other two. Our mother sleeps downstairs.  There is also a guest room next to hers."

"Won't your sisters hear us?" She ignored what I said.

"I have the key to open this door. Turn the flashlight off."  I was behind her as we entered and I noticed the windows were wide open.  I sensed the curtains being blown in by the breeze coming from the sea but the room was pitch black.

"Let me explain and you listen carefully. My mother and sisters go out by that window and they come back the same way."

"What are you talking about?"

"Surely, you have heard the stories, haven't you?  In a minute I will let you turn the flashlight on but not for very long, okay.  My mother and two sisters leave the lower half of their bodies here and they fly out.  Don't worry, they go far away from here.  Your barrio is safe from them."

I was trembling with fear at that point.  I wanted to leave right away but I froze. My legs felt numb.  

"Listen and listen carefully.  I like you and I wish we can really be friends forever but I am leaving after tonight."  Her voice is loud and clear but I can't see anything. 

"Now turn on the flashlight and turn it off right away."

I let out a shriek.  I felt the urge to pee but I held it. There were three pairs of legs under the skirts attached to their abdomens and nothing of the upper half.

"Shut the flashlight off now." She grabbed it from me and turned it off herself.

I was frozen stiff.  "You'll be alright. I'll get you some water downstairs.  Let's go."

I could not talk.  I don't know how I made it downstairs

She sat me down on a chair. I drank the water when she handed me the glass.

"I found out who my real father is and for all of fourteen years since my birth he knew who I was all along.  He manages one of the haciendas up to now.  I was oblivious to all of that but I knew he was always kind to me every time we visited the haciendas. He too is a mestizo. All that time I just knew him as the manager of the hacienda. He will be here before midnight to take me." 

"What will happen to.."

Before I could finish my question, Adelina said, "My father will know what to do.  Don't worry, everything will be alright. And by the way, I am so very sorry about all of these.

I thought I was going to throw up but I did not have the energy. "I am really sorry, I am. But we will make it right.  My father and I will, I promise."

I did not hear anything more what Adelina said after that although I know she kept talking as I stood up to leave. I bolted out of there while Adelina started sobbing.  I managed to beat the 10 o'clock curfew.

The following morning it was all that people in the barrio talked about. Actually, it was all the talk over the radio stations in the entire city.

There was a fire in the early morning hours. It was not so much that but what the firemen and the police discovered. The top floor of the big house - Adelina's home - was completely burned.  Discovering that there were  bodies found in one of the rooms was one thing but the biggest mystery was the missing upper parts of the three pairs of legs near each other.  

Murder investigations started right away. The maids were cleared because they were with their families.  The driver and everyone that worked around the house were likewise cleared. It was established that Adelina was at one of  the family's haciendas that night. Forensic investigation back then was rudimentary but it was assumed that the bodies were those of the mother and her two daughters. The sympathies were focused on Adelina as the lone survivor of a heinous crime. However, people knew little about the family.

I never told anyone about what I saw that night and about ever knowing Adelina or what little I knew about her family.  First of all, I knew my mother warned me about  going back to the house ever again so it was  prudent to never tell anyone at all.  The crime remained unsolved and after a year the talks and rumors dissipated. Partly, that was due to the lukewarm sympathy for the rich family and their isolation from most people.

In the beginning it was a struggle to forget everything. But it got easier as time passed. I focused on school  and I stayed at Section One for all of four years of high school.

Somehow I was able to blot the whole saga out of my mind. I did go to college and worked in Manila.  I met my wife there and years later we immigrated to the U.S. with our two children. Fast forward to now and I am happily retired. My wife and I are enjoying the dream home that she and I both longed for from the time we got married, followed by the decision to immigrate to the U.S.

I have never once recounted that part of the story of my childhood to anyone.  Never once did I want to revisit those memories.

Never once until recently. 

I and my wife  would often hear strange sounds around the house, at night mostly. Then every now and then while watching TV in the family area, I'd catch a fleeting shadow of something move across the foyer about sixteen feet away where lighting was subdued.  One day my wife was looking for a couple of checks she had prepared to send out. At the same time I was missing a tool that I knew I had with me while working on something in the bedroom. I know there was no way I mislaid it and if I did I looked everywhere, even under the bed. It was just simply impossible to miss it. 

My wife never found the checks.  She knows she had written them because the duplicates were in the checkbook. I didn't find the tool either.

I woke up one night.  It was just past midnight. Nothing unusual because I would get up twice throughout the night to go to the bathroom. Or, as the case this time, I wanted to get a drink of water as my throat felt dry. I went out of the bedroom and walked to the kitchen. Before I could turn on the light I saw someone sitting on one of the chairs around the breakfast table.

She had a white dress. One elbow was resting on the table while the other was on her lap. She looked at me. It was the smile that brought it all back.

I said quietly, "Adelina?"

She just smiled. "But this is not possible. You should be over eighty years old now but it is you, isn't it?" Actually, it was her if she were in her twenties.

Then she spoke. "I aged only a year for every five of yours. You don't have to calculate. I would be twenty five, right?

"No, this is impossible.  How can you do this to me? It was torment that I was put through that night in 1959.  Why?"

"I am so sorry again. But this is really my last goodbye to you. I promise. I'm moving on to somewhere I will never return from to torment you, as you put it."

But how? How on earth is this happening? But I must know before you leave, if you are leaving at all.

"My father came half an hour after you were gone. He set the house on fire before we left just a little after midnight . My father knew that that was the only way to end the curse. He did not know about my mother and my two sisters until much later. I kind of suspected something when I turned thirteen. But it was when I turned fourteen when I confirmed to him what he suspected.  But it took him a while to conceive a plan."

"Did you know already when that bird flew out of your hand back on that day I met you?" 

"Yes. But I knew I was not like her or my two sisters."

"But why did you not age as much?"

"That is the sad part. You talk about your torment.  What about  my torment? I am my mother's daughter.  I had and still have her genes."

"You mean?"

"Yes. But this I promised myself then and now. You were really my only true friend although it was not much of a friendship, was it? I mean we didn't really get to be around each other much like real friends, did we?  It was two years later after the fire when I knew I had my mother's blood in me. But I kept my one promise.  I will never bother you, your family or any of the people in your barrio. But I became what I became and still am. But this is goodbye forever.

She smiled.  Then she looked sad. Her face transformed, then she vanished into thin air.

I stood there for a minute. Her face .. 

Everyone, Mark October 31

Be Still and Wait for Nightfall

Choose Trick or Treat Y'all !!

 😇

 

P.S. 1 My boyhood friends and I  did dig for clams the way  I described it.  My family lived in a nipa hut. Also, when mussels were in season, we would dive down into 5-6 feet of water from outrigger canoes during high tide and sometimes there is literally a carpet of them that we just scooped up  clumps of 10 mussels at each dive. The hard part was finding the right spot. 

P.S. 2 For the readers who are not familiar with what happened at the second floor of the house, the link below on scary witches has an explanation for it but, of course, Adelina and her family are not real; however, superstitions existed then and even up to now. And Mestizas are real (as in every Spanish colony around the globe). And so were the haciendas, the unfair treatment of the native laborers who toiled in the sugar cane fields during that era and the glaring class distinctions between the haves and the have nots. 

(Copy link below to your search bar and click to open)

https://abreloth.blogspot.com/2024/10/scary-witches-recast-for-halloween-2024.html

You still have time to buy those candies for the trick or treaters.  Remember when you were a young kid, begging for scary stories from your dad or uncles? Or, why Harry Potter is so popular with the youth. Or why horror movies still sell. Well.. you did get to finish reading this, didn't you?

Socialism: Good Only For Ants, Bees and Termites

Socialism is a known success - for millions of years - among certain organisms.  These organisms owe their  existence and survival to that one and only that one system. We are talking about ants, bees and termites.  

The cartoon above, of course, illustrates the obvious - the entire ant colony is the offspring of the queen ant so every single ant is related to it and, naturally, to one another. (Note: Antcestors.com on the computer screen adds more to the humor). 

Even more significant is that the colony is a monarchy, lorded over by the queen which runs a socialist system that has made both the ants and termites as the  most successful species to have lived since the time of the dinosaurs.  They are also likely to survive, if it happens, the end-of-the-world cataclysm  that could wipe out  other species.  We'll get back to this later.

Now, how do we rate socialism in terms of its success or failure throughout our own human history? For one thing it has been tried more than once. There were several versions of it  and some iterations of socialism have been tried at different times or eras.

Formally, this year, there are 12 countries that have socialist constitutions; 10 countries that have  socialist ruling parties; 4 countries that have communist constitutions; 38 countries that have tried and abandon them altogether.  The only true remaining communist countries are China, Vietnam, Laos and Cuba.  China and Vietnam apparently run a hybrid version of communism where they run their economy like a capitalist while ruling the country as a communist regime.

By geographic area, about a third of the world have tried socialism and communism although a good chunk of it was the former USSR and the Warsaw pact countries like Hungary, Romania, Poland, Ukraine, etc.

Today, proponents are sensitive to being labeled as adhering to communism and insist that their idea is based on democratic socialism, not its extreme version which is, of course, communism. So, let's just call it socialism then. A generation ago, no political candidate in the U.S. would have had the courage to even hint the slightest inclination towards socialism.  Today, we have a New York city mayoral candidate openly admitting and espousing the merits of a socialist administration.  A handful members of congress are sympathetic and openly supports the mayoral candidate. 

Young people today seem to be enamored with socialism so let's see what definitions we can share with them. Italicized paragraphs signify actual quotes from several references but the "theme" is consistent.

"Communism is one of multiple variations of socialism. Therefore, communist countries are inherently socialist, but not all socialist countries are considered communist".

 

noun:

"A theory or system of social organization that advocates the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, capital, land, etc., by the community as a whole, usually through a centralized government."

A political theory derived from Karl Marx, advocating class war and leading to a society in which all property is publicly owned and each person works and is paid according to their abilities and needs.

"Communism is a political and economic system that seeks to create a classless society in which the major means of production, such as mines and factories, are owned and controlled by the public. There is no government or private property or currency, and the wealth is divided among citizens equally or according to individual need. Many of communism’s tenets derive from the works of German revolutionary Karl Marx, who (with Friedrich Engels) wrote The Communist Manifesto (1848)."

What is a Socialist State?

"It can be difficult to accurately define a socialist country because the term has come to have many meanings and interpretations. Broadly speaking, socialism is a political and economic theory that seeks to close the gap between a nation’s rich and poor by ensuring that the means of production, distribution, and exchange of goods and services are publicly owned, not privately owned, so that the profits are shared by all, not hoarded by a few rich owners. However, that basic definition encompasses a wide range of real-world variations on socialism. In its purest form, socialism is decidedly progressive. In practice, socialist countries can run the gamut from impressively progressive to staunchly conservative, often hinging upon the level of corruption in the government."

That last phrase above is significant.  But first, we need to recognize that it was primarily the concentration of power and wealth among the royalty that primed the French Revolution (1787), followed by the Chinese revolution against the Qing dynasty (1911), then the revolt against Tsarist Russia (1917). Let us not forget though all the above were preceded by the American Revolution in 1776. Some historians claim that the French actually got their inspiration from  America. 

It was Karl Marx, German philosopher and revolutionary, who brought to light the brewing discontent of the people against the unjust aggregation of wealth and power only among the elite members of royalty that at that point was merely dictated by bloodline. But what he abhorred the most was capitalism that was fueling the emergence of industrialization and the notion that the workers were being taken advantage of. Perhaps true then but no longer true now.

Both are economic systems; however, their political platforms are diametric opposites.

A. Capitalism

1. In a democracy, its economic foundation is the capitalist system. It puts no limit to how much individuals, or groups pooled together into corporations, can earn in terms of return on what they put into a business. This creates different classes of people, tiered into Rich, Upper middle class, Middle class, and the Poor (usually needing public assistance)

2. Government is not generally involved in commerce

3. Individual freedom is guaranteed

B. Socialism

"From an economic perspective, socialism and communism are the same. They’re both based on government ownership, central planning, and price controls.

From a political perspective, however, there’s a difference. Communism is an authoritarian form of government, while socialism can be the outcome of the democratic process".       --------- Dan Mitchell

1.There is no class system, strictly speaking but in reality there is.

2. Individual freedom is severely curtailed. The power of the state supersedes everything

3. Resources and wealth belong entirely to the state

The two statements below are a way of looking at the difference between the two systems:

"It is easy being a communist in a free country

Try being free in a Communist country".

Back to the ants and termites. The way the colony is ran the queen rules as a  monarch - the one true benevolent dictatorship.  Each member of the colony is its offspring.  The rest of the colony are made up of infertile females (not capable of producing offspring) and males called drones.  The females do most of the work - foraging for food for the colony, caring for the eggs and the young. The queen can lay hundreds of eggs everyday and it determines whether those eggs will become females or males. The drones do very little until the need for their service arises.  At some point in the life of the colony, it will have grown so large that the need arises for a new colony to be established somewhere else.

At that point the queen will produce fertile females which will sprout wings and for many drones as well.  Both fertile females and drones will take to the air in a swarm to mate. Each female will mate with several males. The sad part is that every drone dies after mating.  It is also certain that few of the fertilized females will survive because of predations from predators like birds and bats and dragonflies, etc.

The surviving females will later find a suitable place in the ground to establish a new colony of her own where she will become queen. The cycle begins again.

And that is true for termite and bee colonies as well.  The queen gets the bulk of the food gathered by the workers and the rest goes to the larva after each egg hatches.  Each worker and drone gets only enough food to sustain them literary for just one day. Therefore, except for the queen, every other member of the colony gets only their daily share.  That is socialism. The fate of every other member of the colony is determined by the monarch queen. None of the workers or drones may determine on their own how to live their lives except as dictated by the queen. That is monarchy and a severe example of dictatorship. It works and splendidly so but good only for ants, bees and termites.

In March, 2019 I wrote then:  "The Freaky Economics of Income"

A quote from it: 

To get the very notion  of "equality of income for all" deeply ingrained in our psyche  defeats the very principle of the free economic system. 

Socialism is the illusion created by those in power so all their subjects will feel as if indeed they are all getting equal shares provided by the state. When Mao prescribed that everyone wear the same jacket style that came to be known as the Mao jacket, little did the general populace know that while they were wearing the same style, theirs was from coarse cotton while Mao and his entourage had theirs made from the finest silk or linen. 

Every would-be socialist must ask this question. Is income equality good for me as an individual? Is it so bad that I strive to have more income than the next person if I am capable of working harder to earn it?  Will socialism be as inspiring to entrepreneurs and innovators in a country like the U.S. that was built solely on the belief that "if we try harder we can be better than anyone else".

 

To Feel The Pain of Others

Sometime in the early 13th century, approximately between 1209 and 1210, date is not quite established with certainty, was born a man in what was a region in old Persia. His real name was just as indeterminate, Saadi or Sadi, but clearly he grew up in a place called Shiraz.  Today, he is mainly written about as Saadi Shīrāzī, the writer and a philosopher of sorts from Shiraz.

However, his writings, mainly poetry, lived on. Today, one of his writings are written in gold letters above the entrance of the United Nations, translated as follows,

"All human beings are members of one frame,

Since all, at first, from the same essence came.

When time afflicts a limb with pain,

The other limbs cannot at rest remain.

If thou feel not for other’s misery,

A human being is no name for thee". 

Below is, I think, a better, albeit a non-rhyming version, but with a more powerful meaning:

If the sons of Adam are part of one single body

They are of the same essence.

When time afflicts us with pain

In one part of that body

All the other parts feel it too.

If you fail to feel the pain of others,

You do not deserve the name of man.

The irony is not hard to miss. It is on the building of a world body that was created by man immediately after the last world war.  It was clearly meant for the elimination of any more wars between people. The hopes and dreams that it evoked clearly remain unfulfilled, as if the organization has never existed.

Perhaps, it is because it still is an organization made by man.

For what it was created for, it can be said that the U.N. has not succeeded, now almost failing, but not without a lot of effort in the way its hopes are expressed with borrowed words. Below, is a sculpture created by one famous  Soviet artist, Evgeny Vuchetich, that was presented to the United Nations Headquarters on 4 December 1959. 

There is a Biblical quote below it from the Book of Isaiah 2:4 ESV,

 "He shall judge between the nations, and shall decide disputes for many peoples; and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore".

Words, words, words, hollow and weightless, and tragically meaningless, however countless times they are repeated. 

Yet, what has the world got for all the energy and money that went into creating and maintaining the U.N.? If it were a business it should have long gone into bankruptcy. Yet all nations have only succeeded in throwing good money after bad; it still continues to do it today.  If it was created where its first order of business was to prevent future wars after 1945, how many wars have since occurred?

The Parable of the Air

Air that is invisible, like it is nothing, is a lot of something. It is invisible to be nothing so we can see what is in front of us, near and far, yet it is a powerful thing because when in just three to four minutes that we are without it we will cease to exist.  It is invisible but it is how birds are able to fly and airplanes to soar high and far so we may travel over distant land and sea.

Air is invisible but does it not carry so much power when visiting us as a hurricane or tornado? Yes, there is no getting around it, air may be invisible but it is a fierce carrier of energy. NASA estimates that, "In fact, during its life cycle a hurricane can expend as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs!" And what is the carrier of that energy?  Air.

What is my point in all of these? 

Air is what is between two men facing each other.  They both share the same air to breathe and it is what carries their voices to talk to each other. But it is also the same air that will carry foul and hateful language between the same two men.

Uncontrolled anger and extreme carriers of hate also use air as a medium for projectiles, drones and missiles to travel through to inflict pain and destruction over distances.

Why?

As we all can see, that is what happens when we lose the ability to feel the pain of another, followed by the numbing of our own pain because ..

If you fail to feel the pain of others,

You do not deserve the name of man.

When a fireman dashes into a burning building to save a mother and her child, he abandons his fear of pain to his body because he felt the pain of another human being.  The sacrifices made by one human for another are proof that the misery of another is the same essence the next person can feel because pain is the language we all understand.

Indeed, it is our greatest fortune that we live in a world where apparently there are more of us who do feel the pain of others. If it were not so, how did our civilization manage to be where it is today? We have reasons to be hopeful but there is so much that can cause us to worry too.

Our desire through the justice system to impose measure for measure the application of pain or anguish to punish the deed of one person against another because we felt the pain of the latter is both tragic yet justified. But is it really measure for measure? Take the case of a serial murderer who killed ten people. Our justice system can only punish him once through the death penalty.  Isn't life imprisonment in solitary confinement more apt because of the seemingly endless days the convicted killer must confront and be confronted by the wickedness of his deeds? The debate started long ago and rages on to this day.

When nations wage war against each other do they not feel the pain of each other's deeds?  

Thus we are back to the futility of the verses written by Saadi Shīrāzī many centuries ago or by the hopes written in the Book of Isiah.

Our hopes and fears can only be alleviated by the fact that perhaps the distribution of goodness over that of what is bad in  human nature leans even if just slightly by a  thin margin but  still in favor of goodness to insure that civilization survives.

 

 

America, 250 Years in 2026

Our guest contributor immediately wanted a follow up after his last dispatch. We can speculate on why but his reasons might not likely be what we would expect or understand. Many of us may even suggest that his analysis will not go beyond, "it is as good as anyone's"  because of the uncertainty principle that will always prevail over future events.  However, we will have to agree that he did as best as possible to present a sound basis due to his various analyses of our history and his apparently sound understanding of human nature.  Is that perhaps because when we come to think about it, our history is largely driven by our own nature, as opposed to the nature of every other living organism which holds no malice towards any other.  The latter is driven by instincts. We, humans, have the capacity to have freewill and "dominion" over all other life forms that do not have that capacity outside of the instincts they have or programmed and created for in the environment and circumstances of their existence.

In a way, our alien contributor may not have a choice either. From his previous dispatches, he only talked about his mission and no other and that he has no capacity to either reason or question such as we do nor does he have the same human emotions; not even a hint of either sympathy or ability to worry.

Here is his latest report.

Report 8, from Seguey at Sector - 3rd Planet from Medium Stellar Mass

This is a follow  up to my last dispatch - Report 7.

I briefly mentioned the possible role of the United States. I moved every one hundred of the last five hundred years of my existence that I am aware of and this could be my last if the events happen the way I predicted, with a 70-30 per cent probability.

The United States of America or USA for short had pivotal roles during the last world conflicts. It will play that role again if and when it happens.  While the major players in histories remain the same during past  conflicts that resulted in the reshaping of boundaries, alliances changed and so will new alliances come about in the coming years.

Even more significant is that the USA is at its 250th year from the time of its founding and independence from its colonizer.  It is planning to celebrate that milestone next year, 2026.

It is significant but more so because from my earlier report, "The Rise and Fall of Empires", each empire in their recorded history had an average lifespan of about 250 years.  That is a mere ten generations of population, each generation being twenty five years.  It will be somewhat longer for a modern empire like the USA because of the relatively longer lifespans of its people compared to, say, the time of the Romans and the Greeks. 

"From the 1500s until the early 1800s, life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 30 and 40 years. This was due in part to infant mortality rates that remained at 25% until 1800".

Although many of its greatest generation (those who fought in WWII) are almost all gone, the so called baby boomers who were born after that last war are still around, albeit in their twilight years, retired, many are grandparents, but still able to provide quite a bit of input into the national psyche in terms of their old morality, work ethics and savings to still make their mark on the economy and social conscience. I must add that when I talk about morality, social conscience, sympathy and personal feelings, I am doing that purely from their perspective, because apart from that I am not able to relate at all.

However, all of what made this country into an empire from the beginning are in danger of rapid erosion from so many factors. 

a. Social and political divisions are widening

b. Gaps between generations are a reality: Social media savvy of the youth on one side versus  less so among those one and two older generations born earlier; gaps in social mores are not just apparent, they are sometimes disconnected; altered work ethics and social ambitions; political understanding of local and international issues differ; widening gaps in knowledge of civic issues and decline in standards of public education.

These are the same conditions that tore previous empires apart.  Leisure time, particularly among the youth, is plentiful but immersion in social media increased the effects several fold from just ten-fifteen years ago. Conveniences from technology and modern devices allowed for more leisure for the haves and are today's moral equivalent of the services provided by slaves and the serfdom during the time of the emperors, Caesars and Kings many centuries ago. Yesterday's gladiator combats and  chariot races and many other spectator sports of yester-centuries ago are today's football, car racing, soccer matches and boxing and wrestling contests.  The collective immersion in attention span made even greater by television, smartphones and personal computers and laptops.

It is a harsh indictment if I were just another human writer because I have yet to learn the origin, meaning and reason for what they refer to as emotions.  

For every affluent country - from Europe to Asia - there are several other countries several fold the number whose populations do not have near the amount of wealth, economic wherewithal to enjoy a fraction of leisure time or the ability to access  the kind of free time the developed countries enjoy. It is at those places where humans must still resort to personal and collective struggle upon which the human character is developed and honed. The USA was like that from the 16th and 17th centuries. It was by the 18th century, precisely in July, 1776 upon which  the country will celebrate the 250-year milestone next year.

All of that being said, events are happening  that are likely to affect the course of its history.  There had been two assassination attempts on the life of its current president while still a candidate.  Then of late the fatal assassination of a young political and social motivator. What these events have done will likely serve as a galvanizing revelation as to how and where the country is divided but how and where it is shifting towards. 

Before the last Presidential election, it was clear that the country was tilting towards more liberal ideas and ideology, a slow but  unidirectionally away from the conservative ideals that were the foundation of the country at its infancy.  The conservative idea that is the backbone of capitalism was being challenged by an old idea that is socialism mixed in with Marxism. Then just like that, the reverse switch has been happening each day since then.

This is significant.  It is possible now that what socio-political analysts have been warning about on the weakening of the state from widening chasm among the population may have been averted in favor of an apparent correction.

Most world conflicts that escalated towards warfare were attributed to the misreading by one political or military leader of another by underestimating the capability of their adversaries or overestimating their own. The USA was well on its way of being underestimated for its internal divisions and moral erosion of its society.

The switch could possibly result in the rethinking of strategies by potential challengers to the USA's global supremacy. 

Some recent events to consider:

a. The air tight closure of its borders to illegal incursions, after the prior administrations loose control of it that was taken advantage of by foreign potential adversaries. That was abruptly halted.

b. The enforcement of trade tariffs seem to hold but not without domestic and foreign oppositions.

c. The interdiction of illegal drug trafficking has real after effects, although the destruction of  drug carrying sea-going vessels are provoking political backlash, domestically and internationally.

d. The current U.S. President has engaged successfully the member nations of NATO to increase their individual contributions to the organization's defense - a clear reference to the threat of a potential expansion of the Russian-Ukraine war into Western Europe.

e. The Russian-Ukraine war is far from de-escalating.  Instead, the potential for involvement by other nations increased.

f.  Alliances are developing towards conflict preparation instead of in the direction of peaceful coexistence.

g. USA's switching back to naming its Department of Defense to what it was all along in the beginning to The Department of War is raising geopolitical eyebrows

h. The potential recognition of the Palestinian state by many countries that used to either oppose it or uncommitted one way or the other is increasing.  This is not a trivial development especially in the wake of Israel's current ground offensive in the Gaza area.

i.  The United Nations organization is now clearly almost losing its usefulness or almost irrelevant as separate alliances among nations are strengthening. Recently, the highly visible show put together by Russia, China and North Korea and a potential link to Iran has prompted the US and Great Britain to exhibit more than just a perceived affinity towards each other and among the British Commonwealth.  Meanwhile, Europe is playing the NATO card and the economic alliance that is the European Union. 

Separately or as possible combinations, the above can be regarded as potential fuels that could lead to either small isolated fires or      widespread conflagration. 

Refer to my last report where I said, "Indeed the world's a stage, actors all the same, although places differ, human nature prevails because lessons remain unlearned."  Three actors that are identified as different alliances mentioned above are in place, the stage will be the Middle East.

I stand by my earlier estimate of between ten to fifteen years from today.

Seguey is signing off.

This is Not Your Brain Speaking

Nora had been staring at the screen and typing for two and a half hours; not a record because she had spent five to nine hours on many days, sometimes in succession, breaking only for food and bathroom breaks.

Then the screen turned black. In a second it turned grainy gray. And pale green.  One sentence of six words appeared in the middle of the screen.

This is Not Your Brain Speaking

"What the .." Nora exclaimed to no one in particular.  Not even looking around, her eyes were still fixed on the screen. She clicked delete. Nothing. Then, "Alt ctrl delete".  Then she tried shutting down. Nothing. She was reaching for the plug at the wall when new scripts appeared on the screen.

" Don't even try.  It won't work. Go ahead. Try it". 

Nora was smart enough to realize this was highly irregular. Her computer was hacked. She had no choice except perhaps to get the phantom writer to reveal more about itself so she  stopped her attempt to unplug her computer, then she typed, "Who are you?" 

"You can't even remember the last six words? Okay. I repeat, I am not your brain speaking".

"What does that even mean? If you are trying to be obnoxious, you are succeeding aimlessly."

"You used to write better than that. You won an essay contest as a freshman in high school. And you were the only freshman who submitted an entry.  You put to shame the class valedictorian and editor of the high school paper. What happened?"

Nora typed furiously using all caps, "GO AWAY!" Then she crossed her hands across her chest."

"Yes, that's what you wanted to do, isn't it? You want everything to go away?"

Nora didn't respond.

"How long have you had that bottle of pills by the keyboard? Are you going to do it because your chat room buddies say you should? Killing yourself is not the answer.  That is so cliché, you used to say. I'm not here to add to the clichés nor to egg you on.  Those are not friends - anonymous and unknowable characters in the social media you have been sucked into."

Nora finally uncrossed her arms and began tapping.

"I am going to walk away.  This is it."  Then she grabbed the bottle.

"I shall miss you. Your parents and real friends will miss you. And your little sister?"

That made Nora stop. "If you are not my brain how do you know all these? And why do you care?"

"You didn't really want to do it, did you?  Your brain is failing you. Your social media friends failed you. They are not your friends.  Come to think of it, you have only a handful of friends now, don't you?"

"Just tell me please. Who are you?  And why?"

"If I am not your brain then you must know that I operate outside of your ill-functioning brain right now. I know you must be looking for help.  Otherwise, you would have left already. That is good. Your little sister needs to know this.  It was when I mentioned her that made you completely stop.  Talk to me for your family's sake, your sister and most of all for your sake."

"Why do you really care?"

"If it were just you, I wouldn't have. You have a family. Your mother is sick."

"How dare you mention my sick mother?"

"Is that why you want to end your life? Do you really believe killing yourself solves everything? You have other worries too, don't you?"

Nora's tears were streaming down her cheeks. 

"You used to joke that when you cry it is Niagara Falls, not some serene cascading streams.  Those are how real tears should be, because, you said, real crying is the best safety valve".

Nora was sobbing uncontrollably.

"Go ahead, cry."  The screen lit up some more.

"I can't stand to watch my mother cry.  Or, see Dad's shoulders hunched over by her bedside as he strokes her bald head, now devoid of what used to be a brownish red, naturally curly hair".

"And you inherited her hair, didn't you?"

Nora ignored that. She typed even more furiously.

"I started sharing my story online. That was really never my outlet but this is summer and no counselors to talk to.  It was always my mother. When her body started to fail, so did our ability to talk with each other. It was always her who comforted me and counseled me.  I felt so inadequate. Useless". 

"Let me interrupt you. You are seventeen.  You will be a high school senior in the Fall, later this year. You were unanimously voted to be editor of the high school paper.  You will sing lead in an upcoming Mary Poppins musical sponsored by your high school drama department.  The show is for the scheduled December event before the holidays later this year.  You are just into the third week of this summer vacation.  What are you doing, wasting it?"

"We will not have a summer vacation. No trips to whatever she used to always make elaborate plans - for this or that place.  She doesn't have time to hear how I am doing with voice lessons nor to hear my version of Mary Poppins' Spoonful of Sugar. What else is there?"  Tears still flowing down her cheeks.

"Plenty.  But first quit social media. When abused, such as how your chat bodies are doing, it can be worse than a deathly illness. What was your favorite song? I know you would listen to it in a variety of versions. There was the vocals, of course, but you'd listen to the cello and piano of it, violin and cello, just plain piano solo and so on and on.  You never seemed to tire of it."

"It was my mother who taught me how to sing it. It is 'Songs My Mother Taught Me'.  By Antonin Dvorak."

She changed the subject. "It's been a year now since the diagnosis.  Then the chemo.  How did you expect me to behave?"

"Okay.  Now that's better. You're a smart young girl. But your mother's illness came at your most socially awkward time of growing up and adjusting to a role that you thought your mother was going to help. It happened.  You will grow up quickly".

"Then what?"

"First stop blaming yourself but most of all it was never your mother's fault to be sick."

"What do you want from me"

"I want to share with you a copy of the medical report.  Don't ask me how I got it.  Your Dad will get a call from the doctor later this afternoon. Don't tell him or say to anyone that you know about this.  He does not need to know. A copy will come on in a bit."

"Is this a joke?"

"No. And sure you can wait when your Dad gets the call. This is signed by the radiologist and concurred with by two other oncologists. Your Mom's cancer will be in remission.  The tumor is gone."

"I hope to God this is real. I pray to God now that you are not toying with my emotions. Were my prayers answered? I can't and I don't want to argue with you."

Nora's probing mind started working again. She had to choose believing because if this entity can get into her machine the way it did, know about her family, but giving  her hope instead..  

"If you were able to hack into my computer, you just might be capable of getting into the hospital's system.  Oh God, I want to believe you."

"Not yet. Do you want me to attach the document now?"

"No.  I want to read it on my Dad's face when he gathers us after the call, with me in there."

"It's perfectly all right. I am glad I have reached you. I don't succeed this easily. And often, it is too late." 

"What do I need to do now?"

"First, reach out to another young lady whose email address I am sending over to you. She just finished her freshman year in college.  She is doing volunteer work now for much of the summer.  Her name is Claire. She will mentor you in your senior year and perhaps she can help with your major in college, if you decide to keep going.  Your parents, like Claire's, had saved enough for yours.  You know that."

"Will you still contact me after today?  I still would like to thank you. Again."

"Actually, you will thank me when you quit the chat group and you get out of the house and see that there is a much bigger world out there.  You don't thank me now. I will know."

The screen went blank.  Nora wiped her tears. She can't wait  for her Dad to come home. She can't wait for that phone to ring.  Suddenly, there are so many things she can't wait for.  For the first time, the yesterdays were receding fast, the future is shining brightly forward.

P.S.1  Many of the readers may have already read about Claire.  I introduced her first in, "Leap of Faith", then "Leap of Faith into Less Traveled Road" in August of 2023.  Then in "The Ubiquity of Goodness.." on Dec. 18, 2024. All are in the archives.

Also, if you are curious if the song, 'Songs My Mother Taught Me' is real, below is a YouTube link. Copy and paste to your search bar and click to open. When prompted to exit an ad, just click on it. There are many versions of it by different singers. The singer here sings it with practically minimal effort, without straining and literally no melodramatic facial or other gestures even when switching to higher notes. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8AuPWZNxpY&list=RDq8AuPWZNxpY&start_radio=1&rv=4ZMRk1MdNDM

P.S. 2 Regarding the case of Nora's mom's cancer, there are many documented cases of cancers going in remission that occur for seemingly no reason at all.

P.S. 3   Is it plausible this is a hacking case without resorting to the supernatural?  Actually, if Nora did pull the plug, that would have ended the conversation. She backed down from a bluff, but fortunately so. It is simply and plausibly a case of a Good Samaritan suicide intervention.  Nora's internet footprint and family life are readily viewed via the chat room and through her own posts. The hospital's record could conceivably have been hacked. Everything else is easy to accept.

P.S. 4  This too can be explained as one inexplicable Divine Intervention.

Germany, Once More.. Again?

It had been a while since the guest contributor to these musings had shared a copy of his report.  He (I just assigned that for context), in reality, is actually genderless.  However, as a human, he had always assumed the male identity for all of five hundred years that he was aware of his existence. As he had explained before, he may have existed in a different life form from whenever it was when he first arrived.  He estimated it may have been several thousand if not a few million years when he landed as a microorganism on this planet.  The way he explained it then was that he  was one of trillions of micros contained in countless pods sent from their home planet many light years away to explore the universe.  He is not aware of any other micro/s who survived but slowly he was able to deduce what his mission was.  His prior reports had explained how he managed to become who or what he is now.

Meanwhile, here is one of his earlier quotes before we get to his latest report, by way of re-introducing him.

"I am slowly understanding my role. It is the context of time that I struggle relating to, because I am not sure of its relevance to my mission. Time as I observe here may not at all be relevant to the time of those receiving my reports. I am aware my dispatches from this planet may take centuries to circle back to me to and from the intended recipients and it is possible that those to whom I address my reports may no longer exist. But that's for another discussion. Meanwhile, I file this latest observation.

Before I go on, I think it is important that I select a name for archiving purposes. I am realizing now that perhaps there are others like me filing reports from various parts of the universe. There could be a few or there could be millions of others like me that were sent in all directions to observe and report, that managed to survive like I did but I have no way of knowing.

So, I call myself, "Seguey". It is appropriate, I think, because now I know that my existence here is one segue after another. And it is also a metaphor for how lifeforms here had developed. Of course, literally speaking, the development of their civilization is actually a series of one segue after another. (I added "y" to the original word segue - a literary practice which earthlings call "poetic license" and also to differentiate it from Segway - a two wheeled vehicle that is interesting but again still a simple technology compared to what you have in the home planet).

This is the report he shares.  Note that he only describes our solar system and our place in it but does not quite know his exact location in the context of the universe.  He assumes that those receiving his report can triangulate his location, describing our sun as a medium stellar mass, for his report to be relevant.

Report 7, Seguey, Sector - 3rd Planet from Medium Stellar Mass

I am writing this report at a crucial time on this planet. Please review my past reports for proper context and background.   I will skip much of the background data on the preeminent species, namely homo sapiens, commonly known as humans - the form I have adopted since five hundred earth years ago.  I do not recall what I was before then.

I will go straight to the point. The history of humans, or humanity, was a repeating pattern widely recognized by their historians.  Part of that pattern is the repeating wars that occur among the human population. There had been two major wars in their recent history in addition to many minor ones that occurred in between and earlier. I saw them all for the last five hundred years.

A third major war will occur in the near future.  I collated data from how previous wars occurred.  In my earlier report, "The Rise and Fall of Empires", empires fell to be replaced by another. Each empire lasts ten human generations on average (approximately every two hundred fifty years one empire collapses to be replaced by another).  This upcoming third major conflict will be different.  In my earlier reporting, I mainly put together my conclusions on a basic algorithm to analyze existing conditions before each conflict that occurred followed by analysis of probable outcomes to follow.

This time I availed of the latest technology that is progressing rapidly.  Humans call it artificial intelligence (AI).  I am aware that this is going to be a powerful tool for them but I must admit it is probably rudimentary compared to what was used by those who sent me and others like me to explore and survey the rest of the universe.  And I think that using their AI along with what was inherently already in my capability, my conclusions will have a better than 70-30 chance of being correct. Of course, I will not remove the possibility that I can be wrong.

I conclude the following.  Germany started the first major war (1914). It  failed to launch and establish the birth of an empire.  One human generation later (1939), it commenced another imperative that started the second major conflict.  It failed once again to successfully launch what it termed to be a thousand year reign of the Third Reich.  Historians define it as:

"The Third Reich, [l] meaning "Third Realm" or "Third Empire", referred to the Nazi claim that Nazi Germany was the successor to the earlier Holy Roman Empire (800–1806) and German Empire (1871–1918)".

That did not happen. So, why am I concluding that Germany will again play a significant role in the next major war, once more?

Recent events led me to the same conclusions that repeating conflicts lead to predictable recurrences as had been in the past.  I compiled a list, enumerated below, of how and why the next major war will happen, perhaps in ten or twenty five years. Indeed the world's a stage, actors all the same, although places differ, human nature prevails because lessons remain unlearned.

1. Russia/Ukraine war reawakened the fears that had always worried Western Europe and the rest of the western nations.  It is the concern about the potential expansion of the war or that it is a precursor to a bigger one at some future time.

2. Immediately after the last major war, WWII, the winning side, predominantly the Allied countries, wanted to make sure that Germany will never re-arm for conquest ever again. Except for civil defense it cannot  have a standing army that can threaten its neighbors.  It was also true for Japan because it allied with Germany, together with Italy during WWII.

3. However, after that war, the fear shifted to a new alliance to the east -  the formation of the Warsaw Pact, headed by the Soviet Union (that now fully embraced the communist agenda for world dominance).  Consequently, Western Europe formed NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) with the U.S. as a prominent member to counter the Warsaw Pact. The Soviet Union (USSR) has an arsenal of nuclear weapons.  Of the NATO members, only the U.S., Britain and France have nuclear arms.  All four including Russia today have capability to launch from land based locations and from   the air  and from underwater via nuclear submarines. There are enough nuclear armaments presently that can destroy the earth, perhaps several times over.

4. But then the Warsaw Pact dissolved as the USSR failed to hold its grip over the socialist union that fractured for many reasons but mainly because the socialist economic system just simply failed.  Recently, however, Russia's economy is buoyed by revenues from oil deposits to prop up its economy. The new leadership found a way to hold hostage those to its west. Its oil and a nuclear arsenal and military infrastructure are enough to maintain its formidable superpower status in Europe. Ancillary to that is the current leader's aspiration to re-constitute the old USSR. 

5. The potential for another major conflict cannot be underestimated. There are a number of reasons behind what I consider the inevitable recurrence of a conflict. Economic, political and ideological backgrounds, miscalculation of underestimating and overestimating the conditions, and dire desperations. The idea of mutually assured destruction referred to by  almost all military strategists as a deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons may no longer prevail as a result of distrust and misinformation that can plague national leaders into misguided decision making.

6. Western European countries still face the same predicament as before - the lack of sources for oil. Nuclear, wind and solar energy can only do so much to partially cover its energy needs. Oil would still be critical to fuel and lubricate heavy equipment from cross-country haulers of goods, fire trucks, earth moving equipment, airplanes and ships, and as raw material for plastics for almost all industrial applications and commercial/medical needs, etc. Today, the problem is exacerbated by the fact that Russia is the only oil producer in the region. Every other source for oil will come via ships from overseas.  Global politics due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict has pushed Western Europe away from Russia but, unfortunately, they are held hostage literally by the umbilical cord  that is the oil pipeline from Russia to the west.

7. Alliances are being forged in ways the world has not quite seen before. Germany on its own has rekindled its relationship with Turkey and Syria. Turkey provides a natural gateway between Europe and the Middle East while Syria is not only an oil producer, it does not have to ship oil via the dangerous Straits of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.  Russia, China, North Korea have forged together an alliance of sorts that are meant to counter not just the U.S. and its own natural alliances but against NATO as well. The power play will become tense for the coming years.

8. Purely derived from  analysis of history and a mix of historical deduction I surmise that perhaps Germany is pushed by something more profound than just the economy and security. The "Third Realm" or "Third Empire" will re-surface.

First, a historical background from when and where the bloodline of the German people may have started from the time of an ancient empire to the present site in Europe that Germany now occupies.

Widely recognized by their own historians, the cradle or  birthplace of human civilization began in the region known then as Mesopotamia, a geographical location where early human populations emerged and  developed into distinct and separate national borders.  That region is today the upper Middle East. It was only natural that the earliest known empire would develop from there.  It was the second empire - the Assyrian - that  achieved the first crucial role from whence the so-called, "The Rise and Fall of Empires" (from my earlier report) started.

1. Akkadian Empire

 Year Established and Ended: c.2334 BCE – c.2154 BCE

 Duration: 180 years

 Founding Country: Ancient Mesopotamia – around modern-day Iraq

 Capital City: Akkad

2. Assyrian Empire

 Year Established and Ended: c.2025 BCE – c.605 BCE

 Duration: 1,420 years

 Founding Country: Assyria (parts of modern-day Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran)

 Capital City: several throughout different periods – first capital city was Aššur

 From that historical background and from my observations in the last five hundred years I saw the repeating patterns of warfare, power struggle and the shifting conditions between the victors and the vanquished, human slavery, banishments and migration, the spreading human population went on to cover the entire landscape that later made up what is now the present world geography of the earth.  Culture and languages evolved in rapid succession; however, the so called bloodline or DNA of the various populations that developed are preserved - a critical assumption by those who profess to believe in their own inalienable identity that led to the claim of superiority over others.

This takes us back to an earlier note in this report about, "The Third Realm" or "Third Empire".

The Germanic people, not limited to modern day population that occupy present day geographic Germany, also refers to other people in several countries along the western and northern Europe, who may claim their lineage to have originated from that region in the Middle East where they believed the Assyrian Empire began - the region that is presently occupied by parts of modern-day Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran.

It is that affiliation and consequent alliances that will subsequently result in the re-emergence of the original Assyrian Empire.  However, that is not how it will be identified in the current context of a potential conflict.  It will be more complex than that. It will come out as an  economic, political, cultural and social alliance that harken to the days of the Prussian Empire.  Presently, hardly anyone remembers let alone talk about Prussia.

For background, from commentaries of historians, current and past, a summary..

 

Prussia had:

1. One of the largest and best-drilled armies in Europe

2. Centralized bureaucracy modeled on military efficiency

3. A national culture that prized obedience, order, and discipline

"Why Does Prussia Still Matter Today?"

Even though Prussia no longer exists as a state, its fingerprints remain:

a. Germany’s civil service, education system, and military all carry Prussian DNA

b. Bismarck’s realpolitik and statecraft were rooted in Prussian ideals

c. The balance between federalism and centralization in Germany still echoes Prussian structures".

Although the old Prussian markers and boundaries are gone the discipline and orderliness of the people remained. That is how Germany recovered from the rubble after WWII and so quickly became an economic power in Europe in so short a time. However, that leaves a national insecurity that is a threat to its economic well being if it does not have military security.

France and Great Britain, as members of NATO, recently offered "nuclear umbrella" for Germany to reassure it against the perceived threat of the new Russian alliance that is already tipping the delicate balance in Europe. Not to be diminished is the umbilical cord that is the oil pipeline.

Now, before I forget, there are other parts of the geopolitical equation that need to be addressed.  The Middle East which I identified earlier where civilization started is again an area of heightened tension. It is an area where for centuries  empires changed hands over and over.  Today, the Israel/Hamas conflict over a place called Palestine is once again a point of violent tension. For centuries, long before Europe held the stage for what historians define as  the theater of many wars, the Middle East is where it all began.  The rise and fall of the Assyrian and the Persian empires contributed to the many dispersals of many people, voluntarily or by force, through slavery or forced migration or military expeditions.  

Among those who battled against both empires was the nation of Israel. As a consequence  of losing the conflict much of the Israeli people were dispersed after constant subjugation, forced migration and slavery towards the west. Many of the fractured tribes went westerly into Europe.  But they were not alone  because along with them were their own slavers - a mix of Persians and Assyrians - who later were pushed by new victors, notably the Holy Roman Empire later, which by then were also a mixture of many people.  That is how the Israeli people came to settle in places like Poland and the Prussian kingdom that later became what is now Germany for the most part. The Israelis kept their cultural, religious and customary identity but it was because of it that they were later the subject of persecution.

The turn of events immediately after WWII rekindled  the beginning of the tension in the Middle East upon the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. That portion of history is too complex to be part of this report but suffice it to say that it is today where the final conflict will occur, if there is going to be one.

The third component of the geopolitical landscape would be the United States, where presently I have taken up permanent residency.  I moved every one hundred years to live at locations that had the biggest impact on the affairs of the world at specific times. The United States was instrumental in ending the last two world wars.  It will be drawn into one again if indeed such a conflict occurs.  This time I conclude it will happen in the Middle East as had been the original theater of many wars. For now, there is not enough data for me to conclude how it will happen but there are many sources of tension.  It is that tension that led me to conclude on the inevitability of a major conflict.

"A national culture that prized obedience, order, and discipline" brought Germany back into economic independence to lead Western Europe and it will ultimately have its own nuclear arsenal through the "nuclear umbrella" mentioned several paragraphs above, that France and Britain will provide. Or, it will develop its own nuclear capability. It and much of western Europe will be persuaded considering that countries like N. Korea, India and Pakistan have them already. 

Presently, I continue my observations and I will keep sending my reports although I do not know if and when this and all other past reports I have already dispatched have been read by the intended recipients; besides, I am not even aware that there is anyone there to receive them.  But I will keep sending them according to the mission that I and those like me were tasked to accomplish.

My conclusion for this report: Although I assess a 70-30 probability of a third major military conflict on this planet, (a) I am not  sure exactly when, except to predict that it will happen in the next 10-25 years after all the conditions are fully in place; (b) there is a possibility that despite the repeating patterns of their history, humanity might at last and finally learn of the final lesson to avert the third and devastating war.

I am signing off for now.

P.S. I know there is quite a good number who read my musings that are from Germany and a few from Russia, Japan and surprisingly a handful from China and several from the Middle East and few and far between Asia and Africa, but mainly from North America. Please find no offense personally directed at any of you. Individually we live our lives as best we can, however, you will have to agree that human nature has  overwhelmingly driven our collective history through a path we have very little control over for centuries of our existence.  Also, you may even agree that perhaps it will take Divine intervention to prove our alien reporter wrong.