To Feel The Pain of Others

Sometime in the early 13th century, approximately between 1209 and 1210, date is not quite established with certainty, was born a man in what was a region in old Persia. His real name was just as indeterminate, Saadi or Sadi, but clearly he grew up in a place called Shiraz.  Today, he is mainly written about as Saadi Shīrāzī, the writer and a philosopher of sorts from Shiraz.

However, his writings, mainly poetry, lived on. Today, one of his writings are written in gold letters above the entrance of the United Nations, translated as follows,

"All human beings are members of one frame,

Since all, at first, from the same essence came.

When time afflicts a limb with pain,

The other limbs cannot at rest remain.

If thou feel not for other’s misery,

A human being is no name for thee". 

Below is, I think, a better, albeit a non-rhyming version, but with a more powerful meaning:

If the sons of Adam are part of one single body

They are of the same essence.

When time afflicts us with pain

In one part of that body

All the other parts feel it too.

If you fail to feel the pain of others,

You do not deserve the name of man.

The irony is not hard to miss. It is on the building of a world body that was created by man immediately after the last world war.  It was clearly meant for the elimination of any more wars between people. The hopes and dreams that it evoked clearly remain unfulfilled, as if the organization has never existed.

Perhaps, it is because it still is an organization made by man.

For what it was created for, it can be said that the U.N. has not succeeded, now almost failing, but not without a lot of effort in the way its hopes are expressed with borrowed words. Below, is a sculpture created by one famous  Soviet artist, Evgeny Vuchetich, that was presented to the United Nations Headquarters on 4 December 1959. 

There is a Biblical quote below it from the Book of Isaiah 2:4 ESV,

 "He shall judge between the nations, and shall decide disputes for many peoples; and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war anymore".

Words, words, words, hollow and weightless, and tragically meaningless, however countless times they are repeated. 

Yet, what has the world got for all the energy and money that went into creating and maintaining the U.N.? If it were a business it should have long gone into bankruptcy. Yet all nations have only succeeded in throwing good money after bad; it still continues to do it today.  If it was created where its first order of business was to prevent future wars after 1945, how many wars have since occurred?

The Parable of the Air

Air that is invisible, like it is nothing, is a lot of something. It is invisible to be nothing so we can see what is in front of us, near and far, yet it is a powerful thing because when in just three to four minutes that we are without it we will cease to exist.  It is invisible but it is how birds are able to fly and airplanes to soar high and far so we may travel over distant land and sea.

Air is invisible but does it not carry so much power when visiting us as a hurricane or tornado? Yes, there is no getting around it, air may be invisible but it is a fierce carrier of energy. NASA estimates that, "In fact, during its life cycle a hurricane can expend as much energy as 10,000 nuclear bombs!" And what is the carrier of that energy?  Air.

What is my point in all of these? 

Air is what is between two men facing each other.  They both share the same air to breathe and it is what carries their voices to talk to each other. But it is also the same air that will carry foul and hateful language between the same two men.

Uncontrolled anger and extreme carriers of hate also use air as a medium for projectiles, drones and missiles to travel through to inflict pain and destruction over distances.

Why?

As we all can see, that is what happens when we lose the ability to feel the pain of another, followed by the numbing of our own pain because ..

If you fail to feel the pain of others,

You do not deserve the name of man.

When a fireman dashes into a burning building to save a mother and her child, he abandons his fear of pain to his body because he felt the pain of another human being.  The sacrifices made by one human for another are proof that the misery of another is the same essence the next person can feel because pain is the language we all understand.

Indeed, it is our greatest fortune that we live in a world where apparently there are more of us who do feel the pain of others. If it were not so, how did our civilization manage to be where it is today? We have reasons to be hopeful but there is so much that can cause us to worry too.

Our desire through the justice system to impose measure for measure the application of pain or anguish to punish the deed of one person against another because we felt the pain of the latter is both tragic yet justified. But is it really measure for measure? Take the case of a serial murderer who killed ten people. Our justice system can only punish him once through the death penalty.  Isn't life imprisonment in solitary confinement more apt because of the seemingly endless days the convicted killer must confront and be confronted by the wickedness of his deeds? The debate started long ago and rages on to this day.

When nations wage war against each other do they not feel the pain of each other's deeds?  

Thus we are back to the futility of the verses written by Saadi Shīrāzī many centuries ago or by the hopes written in the Book of Isiah.

Our hopes and fears can only be alleviated by the fact that perhaps the distribution of goodness over that of what is bad in  human nature leans even if just slightly by a  thin margin but  still in favor of goodness to insure that civilization survives.

 

 

America, 250 Years in 2026

Our guest contributor immediately wanted a follow up after his last dispatch. We can speculate on why but his reasons might not likely be what we would expect or understand. Many of us may even suggest that his analysis will not go beyond, "it is as good as anyone's"  because of the uncertainty principle that will always prevail over future events.  However, we will have to agree that he did as best as possible to present a sound basis due to his various analyses of our history and his apparently sound understanding of human nature.  Is that perhaps because when we come to think about it, our history is largely driven by our own nature, as opposed to the nature of every other living organism which holds no malice towards any other.  The latter is driven by instincts. We, humans, have the capacity to have freewill and "dominion" over all other life forms that do not have that capacity outside of the instincts they have or programmed and created for in the environment and circumstances of their existence.

In a way, our alien contributor may not have a choice either. From his previous dispatches, he only talked about his mission and no other and that he has no capacity to either reason or question such as we do nor does he have the same human emotions; not even a hint of either sympathy or ability to worry.

Here is his latest report.

Report 8, from Seguey at Sector - 3rd Planet from Medium Stellar Mass

This is a follow  up to my last dispatch - Report 7.

I briefly mentioned the possible role of the United States. I moved every one hundred of the last five hundred years of my existence that I am aware of and this could be my last if the events happen the way I predicted, with a 70-30 per cent probability.

The United States of America or USA for short had pivotal roles during the last world conflicts. It will play that role again if and when it happens.  While the major players in histories remain the same during past  conflicts that resulted in the reshaping of boundaries, alliances changed and so will new alliances come about in the coming years.

Even more significant is that the USA is at its 250th year from the time of its founding and independence from its colonizer.  It is planning to celebrate that milestone next year, 2026.

It is significant but more so because from my earlier report, "The Rise and Fall of Empires", each empire in their recorded history had an average lifespan of about 250 years.  That is a mere ten generations of population, each generation being twenty five years.  It will be somewhat longer for a modern empire like the USA because of the relatively longer lifespans of its people compared to, say, the time of the Romans and the Greeks. 

"From the 1500s until the early 1800s, life expectancy throughout Europe hovered between 30 and 40 years. This was due in part to infant mortality rates that remained at 25% until 1800".

Although many of its greatest generation (those who fought in WWII) are almost all gone, the so called baby boomers who were born after that last war are still around, albeit in their twilight years, retired, many are grandparents, but still able to provide quite a bit of input into the national psyche in terms of their old morality, work ethics and savings to still make their mark on the economy and social conscience. I must add that when I talk about morality, social conscience, sympathy and personal feelings, I am doing that purely from their perspective, because apart from that I am not able to relate at all.

However, all of what made this country into an empire from the beginning are in danger of rapid erosion from so many factors. 

a. Social and political divisions are widening

b. Gaps between generations are a reality: Social media savvy of the youth on one side versus  less so among those one and two older generations born earlier; gaps in social mores are not just apparent, they are sometimes disconnected; altered work ethics and social ambitions; political understanding of local and international issues differ; widening gaps in knowledge of civic issues and decline in standards of public education.

These are the same conditions that tore previous empires apart.  Leisure time, particularly among the youth, is plentiful but immersion in social media increased the effects several fold from just ten-fifteen years ago. Conveniences from technology and modern devices allowed for more leisure for the haves and are today's moral equivalent of the services provided by slaves and the serfdom during the time of the emperors, Caesars and Kings many centuries ago. Yesterday's gladiator combats and  chariot races and many other spectator sports of yester-centuries ago are today's football, car racing, soccer matches and boxing and wrestling contests.  The collective immersion in attention span made even greater by television, smartphones and personal computers and laptops.

It is a harsh indictment if I were just another human writer because I have yet to learn the origin, meaning and reason for what they refer to as emotions.  

For every affluent country - from Europe to Asia - there are several other countries several fold the number whose populations do not have near the amount of wealth, economic wherewithal to enjoy a fraction of leisure time or the ability to access  the kind of free time the developed countries enjoy. It is at those places where humans must still resort to personal and collective struggle upon which the human character is developed and honed. The USA was like that from the 16th and 17th centuries. It was by the 18th century, precisely in July, 1776 upon which  the country will celebrate the 250-year milestone next year.

All of that being said, events are happening  that are likely to affect the course of its history.  There had been two assassination attempts on the life of its current president while still a candidate.  Then of late the fatal assassination of a young political and social motivator. What these events have done will likely serve as a galvanizing revelation as to how and where the country is divided but how and where it is shifting towards. 

Before the last Presidential election, it was clear that the country was tilting towards more liberal ideas and ideology, a slow but  unidirectionally away from the conservative ideals that were the foundation of the country at its infancy.  The conservative idea that is the backbone of capitalism was being challenged by an old idea that is socialism mixed in with Marxism. Then just like that, the reverse switch has been happening each day since then.

This is significant.  It is possible now that what socio-political analysts have been warning about on the weakening of the state from widening chasm among the population may have been averted in favor of an apparent correction.

Most world conflicts that escalated towards warfare were attributed to the misreading by one political or military leader of another by underestimating the capability of their adversaries or overestimating their own. The USA was well on its way of being underestimated for its internal divisions and moral erosion of its society.

The switch could possibly result in the rethinking of strategies by potential challengers to the USA's global supremacy. 

Some recent events to consider:

a. The air tight closure of its borders to illegal incursions, after the prior administrations loose control of it that was taken advantage of by foreign potential adversaries. That was abruptly halted.

b. The enforcement of trade tariffs seem to hold but not without domestic and foreign oppositions.

c. The interdiction of illegal drug trafficking has real after effects, although the destruction of  drug carrying sea-going vessels are provoking political backlash, domestically and internationally.

d. The current U.S. President has engaged successfully the member nations of NATO to increase their individual contributions to the organization's defense - a clear reference to the threat of a potential expansion of the Russian-Ukraine war into Western Europe.

e. The Russian-Ukraine war is far from de-escalating.  Instead, the potential for involvement by other nations increased.

f.  Alliances are developing towards conflict preparation instead of in the direction of peaceful coexistence.

g. USA's switching back to naming its Department of Defense to what it was all along in the beginning to The Department of War is raising geopolitical eyebrows

h. The potential recognition of the Palestinian state by many countries that used to either oppose it or uncommitted one way or the other is increasing.  This is not a trivial development especially in the wake of Israel's current ground offensive in the Gaza area.

i.  The United Nations organization is now clearly almost losing its usefulness or almost irrelevant as separate alliances among nations are strengthening. Recently, the highly visible show put together by Russia, China and North Korea and a potential link to Iran has prompted the US and Great Britain to exhibit more than just a perceived affinity towards each other and among the British Commonwealth.  Meanwhile, Europe is playing the NATO card and the economic alliance that is the European Union. 

Separately or as possible combinations, the above can be regarded as potential fuels that could lead to either small isolated fires or      widespread conflagration. 

Refer to my last report where I said, "Indeed the world's a stage, actors all the same, although places differ, human nature prevails because lessons remain unlearned."  Three actors that are identified as different alliances mentioned above are in place, the stage will be the Middle East.

I stand by my earlier estimate of between ten to fifteen years from today.

Seguey is signing off.

This is Not Your Brain Speaking

Nora had been staring at the screen and typing for two and a half hours; not a record because she had spent five to nine hours on many days, sometimes in succession, breaking only for food and bathroom breaks.

Then the screen turned black. In a second it turned grainy gray. And pale green.  One sentence of six words appeared in the middle of the screen.

This is Not Your Brain Speaking

"What the .." Nora exclaimed to no one in particular.  Not even looking around, her eyes were still fixed on the screen. She clicked delete. Nothing. Then, "Alt control delete".  Then she tried shutting down. Nothing. She was reaching for the plug at the wall when new scripts appeared on the screen.

" Don't even try.  It won't work. Go ahead. Try it". 

Nora was smart enough to realize this was highly irregular. Her computer was hacked. She had no choice except perhaps to get the phantom writer to reveal more about itself so she  stopped her attempt to unplug her computer, then she typed, "Who are you?" 

"You can't even remember the last six words? Okay. I repeat, I am not your brain speaking".

"What does that even mean? If you are trying to be obnoxious, you are succeeding aimlessly."

"You used to write better than that. You won an essay contest as a freshman in high school. And you were the only freshman who submitted an entry.  You put to shame the class valedictorian and editor of the high school paper. What happened?"

Nora typed furiously using all caps, "GO AWAY!" Then she crossed her hands across her chest."

"Yes, that's what you wanted to do, isn't it? You want everything to go away?"

Nora didn't respond.

"How long have you had that bottle of pills by the keyboard? Are you going to do it because your chat room buddies say you should? Killing yourself is not the answer.  That is so cliché, you used to say. I'm not here to add to the clichés nor to egg you on.  Those are not friends - anonymous and unknowable characters in the social media you have been sucked into."

Nora finally uncrossed her arms and began tapping.

"I am going to walk away.  This is it."  Then she grabbed the bottle.

"I shall miss you. Your parents and real friends will miss you. And your little sister?"

That made Nora stop. "If you are not my brain how do you know all these? And why do you care?"

"You didn't really want to do it, did you?  Your brain is failing you. Your social media friends failed you. They are not your friends.  Come to think of it, you have only a handful of friends now, don't you?"

"Just tell me please. Who are you?  And why?"

"If I am not your brain then you must know that I operate outside of your ill-functioning brain right now. I know you must be looking for help.  Otherwise, you would have left already. That is good. Your little sister needs to know this.  It was when I mentioned her that made you completely stop.  Talk to me for your family's sake, your sister and most of all for your sake."

"Why do you really care?"

"If it were just you, I wouldn't have. You have a family. Your mother is sick."

"How dare you mention my sick mother?"

"Is that why you want to end your life? Do you really believe killing yourself solves everything? You have other worries too, don't you?"

Nora's tears were streaming down her cheeks. 

"You used to joke that when you cry it is Niagara Falls, not some serene cascading streams.  Those are how real tears should be, because, you said, real crying is the best safety valve".

Nora was sobbing uncontrollably.

"Go ahead, cry."  The screen lit up some more.

"I can't stand to watch my mother cry.  Or, see Dad's shoulders hunched over by her bedside as he strokes her bald head, now devoid of what used to be a brownish red, naturally curly hair".

"And you inherited her hair, didn't you?"

Nora ignored that. She typed even more furiously.

"I started sharing my story online. That was really never my outlet but this is summer and no counselors to talk to.  It was always my mother. When her body started to fail, so did our ability to talk with each other. It was always her who comforted me and counseled me.  I felt so inadequate. Useless". 

"Let me interrupt you. You are seventeen.  You will be a high school senior in the Fall, later this year. You were unanimously voted to be editor of the high school paper.  You will sing lead in an upcoming Mary Poppins musical sponsored by your high school drama department.  The show is for the scheduled December event before the holidays later this year.  You are just into the third week of this summer vacation.  What are you doing, wasting it?"

"We will not have a summer vacation. No trips to whatever she used to always make elaborate plans - for this or that place.  She doesn't have time to hear how I am doing with voice lessons nor to hear my version of Mary Poppins' Spoonful of Sugar. What else is there?"  Tears still flowing down her cheeks.

"Plenty.  But first quit social media. When abused, such as how your chat bodies are doing, it can be worse than a deathly illness. What was your favorite song? I know you would listen to it in a variety of versions. There was the vocals, of course, but you'd listen to the cello and piano of it, violin and cello, just plain piano solo and so on and on.  You never seemed to tire of it."

"It was my mother who taught me how to sing it. It is 'Songs My Mother Taught Me'.  By Antonin Dvorak."

She changed the subject. "It's been a year now since the diagnosis.  Then the chemo.  How did you expect me to behave?"

"Okay.  Now that's better. You're a smart young girl. But your mother's illness came at your most socially awkward time of growing up and adjusting to a role that you thought your mother was going to help. It happened.  You will grow up quickly".

"Then what?"

"First stop blaming yourself but most of all it was never your mother's fault to be sick."

"What do you want from me"

"I want to share with you a copy of the medical report.  Don't ask me how I got it.  Your Dad will get a call from the doctor later this afternoon. Don't tell him or say to anyone that you know about this.  He does not need to know. A copy will come on in a bit."

"Is this a joke?"

"No. And sure you can wait when your Dad gets the call. This is signed by the radiologist and concurred with by two other oncologists. Your Mom's cancer will be in remission.  The tumor is gone."

"I hope to God this is real. I pray to God now that you are not toying with my emotions. Were my prayers answered? I can't and I don't want to argue with you."

Nora's probing mind started working again. She had to choose believing because if this entity can get into her machine the way it did, know about her family, but giving  her hope instead..  

"If you were able to hack into my computer, you just might be capable of getting into the hospital's system.  Oh God, I want to believe you."

"Not yet. Do you want me to attach the document now?"

"No.  I want to read it on my Dad's face when he gathers us after the call, with me in there."

"It's perfectly all right. I am glad I have reached you. I don't succeed this easily. And often, it is too late." 

"What do I need to do now?"

"First, reach out to another young lady whose email address I am sending over to you. She just finished her freshman year in college.  She is doing volunteer work now for much of the summer.  Her name is Claire. She will mentor you in your senior year and perhaps she can help with your major in college, if you decide to keep going.  Your parents, like Claire's, had saved enough for yours.  You know that."

"Will you still contact me after today?  I still would like to thank you. Again."

"Actually, you will thank me when you quit the chat group and you get out of the house and see that there is a much bigger world out there.  You don't thank me now. I will know."

The screen went blank.  Nora wiped her tears. She can't wait  for her Dad to come home. She can't wait for that phone to ring.  Suddenly, there are so many things she can't wait for.  For the first time, the yesterdays were receding fast, the future is shining brightly forward.

P.S.1  Many of the readers may have already read about Claire.  I introduced her first in, "Leap of Faith", then "Leap of Faith into Less Traveled Road" in August of 2023.  Then in "The Ubiquity of Goodness.." on Dec. 18, 2024. All are in the archives.

Also, if you are curious if the song, 'Songs My Mother Taught Me' is real, below is a YouTube link. Copy and paste to your search bar and click to open. When prompted to exit an ad, just click on it. There are many versions of it by different singers. The singer here sings it with practically minimal effort, without straining and literally no melodramatic facial or other gestures even when switching to higher notes. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8AuPWZNxpY&list=RDq8AuPWZNxpY&start_radio=1&rv=4ZMRk1MdNDM

P.S. 2 Regarding the case of Nora's mom's cancer, there are many documented cases of cancers going in remission that occur for seemingly no reason at all.

P.S. 3   Is it plausible this is a hacking case without resorting to the supernatural?  Actually, if Nora did pull the plug, that would have ended the conversation. She backed down from a bluff, but fortunately so. It is simply and plausibly a case of a Samaritan suicide intervention.  Nora's internet footprint and family life are readily viewed via the chat room and through her own posts. The hospital's record could conceivably have been hacked. Everything else is easy to accept.

P.S. 4  This can be explained as one inexplicable Divine Intervention.

Germany, Once More.. Again?

It had been a while since the guest contributor to these musings had shared a copy of his report.  He (I just assigned that for context), in reality, is actually genderless.  However, as a human, he had always assumed the male identity for all of five hundred years that he was aware of his existence. As he had explained before, he may have existed in a different life form from whenever it was when he first arrived.  He estimated it may have been several thousand if not a few million years when he landed as a microorganism on this planet.  The way he explained it then was that he  was one of trillions of micros contained in countless pods sent from their home planet many light years away to explore the universe.  He is not aware of any other micro/s who survived but slowly he was able to deduce what his mission was.  His prior reports had explained how he managed to become who or what he is now.

Meanwhile, here is one of his earlier quotes before we get to his latest report, by way of re-introducing him.

"I am slowly understanding my role. It is the context of time that I struggle relating to, because I am not sure of its relevance to my mission. Time as I observe here may not at all be relevant to the time of those receiving my reports. I am aware my dispatches from this planet may take centuries to circle back to me to and from the intended recipients and it is possible that those to whom I address my reports may no longer exist. But that's for another discussion. Meanwhile, I file this latest observation.

Before I go on, I think it is important that I select a name for archiving purposes. I am realizing now that perhaps there are others like me filing reports from various parts of the universe. There could be a few or there could be millions of others like me that were sent in all directions to observe and report, that managed to survive like I did but I have no way of knowing.

So, I call myself, "Seguey". It is appropriate, I think, because now I know that my existence here is one segue after another. And it is also a metaphor for how lifeforms here had developed. Of course, literally speaking, the development of their civilization is actually a series of one segue after another. (I added "y" to the original word segue - a literary practice which earthlings call "poetic license" and also to differentiate it from Segway - a two wheeled vehicle that is interesting but again still a simple technology compared to what you have in the home planet).

This is the report he shares.  Note that he only describes our solar system and our place in it but does not quite know his exact location in the context of the universe.  He assumes that those receiving his report can triangulate his location, describing our sun as a medium stellar mass, for his report to be relevant.

Report 7, Seguey, Sector - 3rd Planet from Medium Stellar Mass

I am writing this report at a crucial time on this planet. Please review my past reports for proper context and background.   I will skip much of the background data on the preeminent species, namely homo sapiens, commonly known as humans - the form I have adopted since five hundred earth years ago.  I do not recall what I was before then.

I will go straight to the point. The history of humans, or humanity, was a repeating pattern widely recognized by their historians.  Part of that pattern is the repeating wars that occur among the human population. There had been two major wars in their recent history in addition to many minor ones that occurred in between and earlier. I saw them all for the last five hundred years.

A third major war will occur in the near future.  I collated data from how previous wars occurred.  In my earlier report, "The Rise and Fall of Empires", empires fell to be replaced by another. Each empire lasts ten human generations on average (approximately every two hundred fifty years one empire collapses to be replaced by another).  This upcoming third major conflict will be different.  In my earlier reporting, I mainly put together my conclusions on a basic algorithm to analyze existing conditions before each conflict that occurred followed by analysis of probable outcomes to follow.

This time I availed of the latest technology that is progressing rapidly.  Humans call it artificial intelligence (AI).  I am aware that this is going to be a powerful tool for them but I must admit it is probably rudimentary compared to what was used by those who sent me and others like me to explore and survey the rest of the universe.  And I think that using their AI along with what was inherently already in my capability, my conclusions will have a better than 70-30 chance of being correct. Of course, I will not remove the possibility that I can be wrong.

I conclude the following.  Germany started the first major war (1914). It  failed to launch and establish the birth of an empire.  One human generation later (1939), it commenced another imperative that started the second major conflict.  It failed once again to successfully launch what it termed to be a thousand year reign of the Third Reich.  Historians define it as:

"The Third Reich, [l] meaning "Third Realm" or "Third Empire", referred to the Nazi claim that Nazi Germany was the successor to the earlier Holy Roman Empire (800–1806) and German Empire (1871–1918)".

That did not happen. So, why am I concluding that Germany will again play a significant role in the next major war, once more?

Recent events led me to the same conclusions that repeating conflicts lead to predictable recurrences as had been in the past.  I compiled a list, enumerated below, of how and why the next major war will happen, perhaps in ten or twenty five years. Indeed the world's a stage, actors all the same, although places differ, human nature prevails because lessons remain unlearned.

1. Russia/Ukraine war reawakened the fears that had always worried Western Europe and the rest of the western nations.  It is the concern about the potential expansion of the war or that it is a precursor to a bigger one at some future time.

2. Immediately after the last major war, WWII, the winning side, predominantly the Allied countries, wanted to make sure that Germany will never re-arm for conquest ever again. Except for civil defense it cannot  have a standing army that can threaten its neighbors.  It was also true for Japan because it allied with Germany, together with Italy during WWII.

3. However, after that war, the fear shifted to a new alliance to the east -  the formation of the Warsaw Pact, headed by the Soviet Union (that now fully embraced the communist agenda for world dominance).  Consequently, Western Europe formed NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) with the U.S. as a prominent member to counter the Warsaw Pact. The Soviet Union (USSR) has an arsenal of nuclear weapons.  Of the NATO members, only the U.S., Britain and France have nuclear arms.  All four including Russia today have capability to launch from land based locations and from   the air  and from underwater via nuclear submarines. There are enough nuclear armaments presently that can destroy the earth, perhaps several times over.

4. But then the Warsaw Pact dissolved as the USSR failed to hold its grip over the socialist union that fractured for many reasons but mainly because the socialist economic system just simply failed.  Recently, however, Russia's economy is buoyed by revenues from oil deposits to prop up its economy. The new leadership found a way to hold hostage those to its west. Its oil and a nuclear arsenal and military infrastructure are enough to maintain its formidable superpower status in Europe. Ancillary to that is the current leader's aspiration to re-constitute the old USSR. 

5. The potential for another major conflict cannot be underestimated. There are a number of reasons behind what I consider the inevitable recurrence of a conflict. Economic, political and ideological backgrounds, miscalculation of underestimating and overestimating the conditions, and dire desperations. The idea of mutually assured destruction referred to by  almost all military strategists as a deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons may no longer prevail as a result of distrust and misinformation that can plague national leaders into misguided decision making.

6. Western European countries still face the same predicament as before - the lack of sources for oil. Nuclear, wind and solar energy can only do so much to partially cover its energy needs. Oil would still be critical to fuel and lubricate heavy equipment from cross-country haulers of goods, fire trucks, earth moving equipment, airplanes and ships, and as raw material for plastics for almost all industrial applications and commercial/medical needs, etc. Today, the problem is exacerbated by the fact that Russia is the only oil producer in the region. Every other source for oil will come via ships from overseas.  Global politics due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict has pushed Western Europe away from Russia but, unfortunately, they are held hostage literally by the umbilical cord  that is the oil pipeline from Russia to the west.

7. Alliances are being forged in ways the world has not quite seen before. Germany on its own has rekindled its relationship with Turkey and Syria. Turkey provides a natural gateway between Europe and the Middle East while Syria is not only an oil producer, it does not have to ship oil via the dangerous Straits of Hormuz or the Suez Canal.  Russia, China, North Korea have forged together an alliance of sorts that are meant to counter not just the U.S. and its own natural alliances but against NATO as well. The power play will become tense for the coming years.

8. Purely derived from  analysis of history and a mix of historical deduction I surmise that perhaps Germany is pushed by something more profound than just the economy and security. The "Third Realm" or "Third Empire" will re-surface.

First, a historical background from when and where the bloodline of the German people may have started from the time of an ancient empire to the present site in Europe that Germany now occupies.

Widely recognized by their own historians, the cradle or  birthplace of human civilization began in the region known then as Mesopotamia, a geographical location where early human populations emerged and  developed into distinct and separate national borders.  That region is today the upper Middle East. It was only natural that the earliest known empire would develop from there.  It was the second empire - the Assyrian - that  achieved the first crucial role from whence the so-called, "The Rise and Fall of Empires" (from my earlier report) started.

1. Akkadian Empire

 Year Established and Ended: c.2334 BCE – c.2154 BCE

 Duration: 180 years

 Founding Country: Ancient Mesopotamia – around modern-day Iraq

 Capital City: Akkad

2. Assyrian Empire

 Year Established and Ended: c.2025 BCE – c.605 BCE

 Duration: 1,420 years

 Founding Country: Assyria (parts of modern-day Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran)

 Capital City: several throughout different periods – first capital city was Aššur

 From that historical background and from my observations in the last five hundred years I saw the repeating patterns of warfare, power struggle and the shifting conditions between the victors and the vanquished, human slavery, banishments and migration, the spreading human population went on to cover the entire landscape that later made up what is now the present world geography of the earth.  Culture and languages evolved in rapid succession; however, the so called bloodline or DNA of the various populations that developed are preserved - a critical assumption by those who profess to believe in their own inalienable identity that led to the claim of superiority over others.

This takes us back to an earlier note in this report about, "The Third Realm" or "Third Empire".

The Germanic people, not limited to modern day population that occupy present day geographic Germany, also refers to other people in several countries along the western and northern Europe, who may claim their lineage to have originated from that region in the Middle East where they believed the Assyrian Empire began - the region that is presently occupied by parts of modern-day Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran.

It is that affiliation and consequent alliances that will subsequently result in the re-emergence of the original Assyrian Empire.  However, that is not how it will be identified in the current context of a potential conflict.  It will be more complex than that. It will come out as an  economic, political, cultural and social alliance that harken to the days of the Prussian Empire.  Presently, hardly anyone remembers let alone talk about Prussia.

For background, from commentaries of historians, current and past, a summary..

 

Prussia had:

1. One of the largest and best-drilled armies in Europe

2. Centralized bureaucracy modeled on military efficiency

3. A national culture that prized obedience, order, and discipline

"Why Does Prussia Still Matter Today?"

Even though Prussia no longer exists as a state, its fingerprints remain:

a. Germany’s civil service, education system, and military all carry Prussian DNA

b. Bismarck’s realpolitik and statecraft were rooted in Prussian ideals

c. The balance between federalism and centralization in Germany still echoes Prussian structures".

Although the old Prussian markers and boundaries are gone the discipline and orderliness of the people remained. That is how Germany recovered from the rubble after WWII and so quickly became an economic power in Europe in so short a time. However, that leaves a national insecurity that is a threat to its economic well being if it does not have military security.

France and Great Britain, as members of NATO, recently offered "nuclear umbrella" for Germany to reassure it against the perceived threat of the new Russian alliance that is already tipping the delicate balance in Europe. Not to be diminished is the umbilical cord that is the oil pipeline.

Now, before I forget, there are other parts of the geopolitical equation that need to be addressed.  The Middle East which I identified earlier where civilization started is again an area of heightened tension. It is an area where for centuries  empires changed hands over and over.  Today, the Israel/Hamas conflict over a place called Palestine is once again a point of violent tension. For centuries, long before Europe held the stage for what historians define as  the theater of many wars, the Middle East is where it all began.  The rise and fall of the Assyrian and the Persian empires contributed to the many dispersals of many people, voluntarily or by force, through slavery or forced migration or military expeditions.  

Among those who battled against both empires was the nation of Israel. As a consequence  of losing the conflict much of the Israeli people were dispersed after constant subjugation, forced migration and slavery towards the west. Many of the fractured tribes went westerly into Europe.  But they were not alone  because along with them were their own slavers - a mix of Persians and Assyrians - who later were pushed by new victors, notably the Holy Roman Empire later, which by then were also a mixture of many people.  That is how the Israeli people came to settle in places like Poland and the Prussian kingdom that later became what is now Germany for the most part. The Israelis kept their cultural, religious and customary identity but it was because of it that they were later the subject of persecution.

The turn of events immediately after WWII rekindled  the beginning of the tension in the Middle East upon the creation of the state of Israel in 1948. That portion of history is too complex to be part of this report but suffice it to say that it is today where the final conflict will occur, if there is going to be one.

The third component of the geopolitical landscape would be the United States, where presently I have taken up permanent residency.  I moved every one hundred years to live at locations that had the biggest impact on the affairs of the world at specific times. The United States was instrumental in ending the last two world wars.  It will be drawn into one again if indeed such a conflict occurs.  This time I conclude it will happen in the Middle East as had been the original theater of many wars. For now, there is not enough data for me to conclude how it will happen but there are many sources of tension.  It is that tension that led me to conclude on the inevitability of a major conflict.

"A national culture that prized obedience, order, and discipline" brought Germany back into economic independence to lead Western Europe and it will ultimately have its own nuclear arsenal through the "nuclear umbrella" mentioned several paragraphs above, that France and Britain will provide. Or, it will develop its own nuclear capability. It and much of western Europe will be persuaded considering that countries like N. Korea, India and Pakistan have them already. 

Presently, I continue my observations and I will keep sending my reports although I do not know if and when this and all other past reports I have already dispatched have been read by the intended recipients; besides, I am not even aware that there is anyone there to receive them.  But I will keep sending them according to the mission that I and those like me were tasked to accomplish.

My conclusion for this report: Although I assess a 70-30 probability of a third major military conflict on this planet, (a) I am not  sure exactly when, except to predict that it will happen in the next 10-25 years after all the conditions are fully in place; (b) there is a possibility that despite the repeating patterns of their history, humanity might at last and finally learn of the final lesson to avert the third and devastating war.

I am signing off for now.

P.S. I know there is quite a good number who read my musings that are from Germany and a few from Russia, Japan and surprisingly a handful from China and several from the Middle East and few and far between Asia and Africa, but mainly from North America. Please find no offense personally directed at any of you. Individually we live our lives as best we can, however, you will have to agree that human nature has  overwhelmingly driven our collective history through a path we have very little control over for centuries of our existence.  Also, you may even agree that perhaps it will take Divine intervention to prove our alien reporter wrong.

The Death of Ba-Kitpo: The Inquisitive Hyena

It had been three months since the last encounter between the lone male lion and the hyena. One mid afternoon in the open savannah, the same lion, still alone but now looking quite fully grown as an adult predator, was confronted once again by, this time, two hyenas - one male, one female.  The lion almost reacted immediately with the intensity of the top predator about to face its traditional foes.  Surprisingly, the two hyenas showed a delicate and almost subservient reverence, reminding the lion of the last hyena he met months before. 

"We mean no offense", the male hyena said. "We've been looking for you for months. Our brother talked a lot about you".  That immediately made the lion relax its typical demeanor as top predator of the African wilderness.

"Why is he not here with you?" 

"That's why we've been looking for you for sometime now. He was killed just two weeks after you last saw him."

"Oh, no. What happened? You know he never did tell me his name".

"His name was Ba-Kitpo.  He was our older brother".

"Oh, and you are?"

"Boon-su, the youngest, and this is my sister, Mali-wa.  What do we call you?"

"Ha-Ri.  You may call me Ha-Ri.  So, tell me how  Ba-Kitpo died?"

Boon-Su: He was killed by a hunter.  He was shot.

Ha-Ri: Why?

Boon-Su: A hunter was stalking a great eland for hours.  When he finally got close enough to fire his gun, Ba-Kitpo, not realizing there was a hunter stalking the prey animal, came from behind the Eland, which startled it. It jumped and ran.  The hunter was so angry at Ba-Kitpo.  Then he shot him. Ba-Kitpo was hit just below his right shoulder.

Ha-Ri:  Where was the rest of your cackle?  Where were you?

Boon-Su: We were miles away.  Ba-Kitpo was by himself as he had done many times before, to hunt alone.

Ha-Ri:  That is unusual for a hyena to do, right?

Boon-Su: It's a long story why he did what he did.

Ha-Ri: Tell me.

Boon-Su: Our mother was always on him for not being what a male hyena should be. Ba-Kitpo was always asking too many questions, and at one time even questioned why there are no male leaders of our cackle.  He was always pushing our mother for answers to this and that question. But our mother grieved when Bakit-Po died.

Ha-Ri:  I am really sorry too.  I will miss him.  But why have you been searching for me?

Boon-Su: Twice Ba-Kitpo had taken us, the whole cackle, to your leftovers. He talked about how you were different and the things he learned from you. Actually, our mother got so mad at him for going on his own and of all things, to be friendly with a lion. Then he told of the unthinkable.

Ha-Ri: What?

Boon-Su: He kept talking about a creator who created all the different animals, each kind made with a purpose.  At one time mother denied him from eating with the rest of us.  But Ba-Kitpo was hard-headed about his new beliefs.  

Ha-Ri: You still haven't told me why you were looking for me.

Boon-Su: I'll have my sister explain that to you. She is also the eldest daughter so she will inherit my mother's position as leader of our cackle.

Mali-wa: Yes. I was the first to get to Ba-Kitpo after he was shot.  He was still alive.  He told me to look for you because he said you promised to explain the two questions he asked you before you parted ways the last time.

Boon-Su: Do you remember what you promised him?

Ha-Ri: Yes, but he is no longer with us, so why does it still matter?

Mali-wa: Our mother may not have liked Ba-Kitpo much but I know he was a good son and brother.  I will be head of the cackle at some later time when I take over and I too would like to learn from you.

Ha-Ri: Yes, I remember what I promised him before we parted ways. We were going to talk again, I promised, and I was going to explain why dragonflies are so weird.  Then I will also talk about humans.  He asked me why the creator, I was telling him about, created humans.  For what purpose?

Mali-wa: So, will you tell us?

Ha-Ri: Let's go over under that acacia tree there.

Mali-wa: Why did you treat Ba-Kitpo the way you did?  You know he couldn't stop talking about you and the things you told him.

Ha-Ri: I did not intend to befriend a hyena either but your brother was not only persistent  he had me believe that he was sincere about the questions he asked.  I knew he was searching for answers and I believed in his sincerity. It made me wonder to myself why he and I crossed  paths the way we did.

Boo-Su: Yes, he said the same thing.

Mali-wa: About the dragonfly, what is so weird about them?  Our mother would get mad at Ba-Kitpo every time he'd stray from hyena talk and go on about why this, why that and often he'd wander off looking and watching other animals. 

Ha-Ri: Let's first talk about what I thought Ba-Kitpo was really interested in. He, I think, wanted to know more about humans and their role in nature and in everything.  By the way, what happened to the hunter?

Mali-wa: We heard his guide reported him to the game warden. His weapons were taken from him and we believe he left the country and he cannot come back to hunt anywhere here in Africa.

Ha-Ri: Good.  I did explain  to Ba-Kitpo that humans were created to have dominion over all of nature. We, all living things other than humans, have no malice against one another because we live according to the nature and purpose upon which we were created.  Plants, grasses and fruit are there for prey animals to eat and live on and we are here to live on prey so that in the process the balance is kept. The balance is upset when there is too much prey as to render the green environment the inability to flourish. But overgrowth of vegetation is also bad if prey animals are completely removed. So the balance is maintained when there is just enough prey animals to keep vegetation from overgrowth and predators like us are there to make sure that such a balance is maintained. 

For the most part humans are good for us and the environment but there were always those who chose to do the wrong thing. That is because they are allowed to have free will.

Mali-wa: But why did the hunter kill Ba-Kitpo?

Ha-Ri: They are also capable of anger.  We do not have emotions as they do.  But you know they are also known to have the opposite of anger.  They are known to rescue and help injured animals, provide feed at bird feeders and are even shown to go out of their way to save the whales, injured birds, including predators like you and me.  But sometimes they do senseless acts.

Mali-wa: Such as what the hunter did?

 

Ha-Ri: Yes, and they do senseless acts to one another. They fight and kill one another in countless numbers. Indeed, they do countless acts for many reasons. We only kill for what is necessary.  They do sometimes just for the joy of it.

Boo-Su: I think that was what Ba-Kitpo really wanted to know.  Why then did your creator create humans?

 

Ha-Ri: Like I said, for the most part they do good work. The story of the earth, a world we all share, is still going on. Whatever is the final outcome, our Creator has not made that known.  At least, not yet. This brings us to the story of the dragon fly.  I hope to make the connection with Ba-Kitpo's first question. Would you like to hear that now?

Mali-wa: Yes, please.

Ha-Ri: Dragonflies are very unique insects. Their mothers lay several eggs near still water on a stalk of a water plant or twig.  The eggs hatch and immediately live under water as a larva or nymph.   As a larva the dragonfly lives underwater and breathes like a fish.  Immediately they become predators, eating underwater bugs, worms, even tadpoles.  They can live that kind of life for months or even years, some as long as seven years.  Then one day, they rise from under the water and cling to whatever surface they can climb. Unlike butterflies or moths they skip being a pupa from a larva like caterpillars do. They will immediately develop the ability to start breathing air. Then they shed their skin more than once until they are able to sprout wings.  Slowly gaining strength, they will then fly as marauding predators going after flies and mosquitoes.  And they are very successful predators.

Mali-wa: That is why Ba-Kitpo thought they were weird.

Ha-Ri: Not only that but imagine this. What do you think the other creatures underwater think about where the larva predator goes after leaving the water. You see, every water creature's life is limited to their environment. They have no idea what happens above their world.  They had to wonder what happened to the larva dragonfly.

Mali-wa: Could they believe the larva died and went somewhere else? 

Ha-Ri: That is probably what Ba-Kitpo thought too, don't you think?  You see, I've always wondered whether I underestimated his intelligence.

Mali-wa: That is why I miss him so much.  Now, I have a question.  What do you think if I say that Ba-Kitpo is now a different creature after his death? Is that a dumb question?

Ha-Ri:  No, it is not a dumb question. And I think you are even much smarter than I thought.  You deserve to head your cackle when the time comes.  Yes, it is possible Ba-Kitpo is transformed into something else.  Humans had believed that for a very long time. They believe in the continuing existence. As a different entity, of course.

Mali-wa: I am sure if Ba-Kitpo were here with us he would have asked the question: If your creator allowed for butterflies and dragonflies to go from one form to the other, why couldn't he have done that with humans?

Ha-Ri: Well, there are places like India and some parts in the lower Himalayas and Asia who believe in humans living different lives in succession at different times, often one after another at different places at a time. In India, some revere animals because they could be some of their ancestors or soon to be future relatives.

Mali-wa: Is that what you meant by the connection between Ba-Kitpo's two questions about humans and dragonflies? 

Ha-Ri: Yes.  Always look between the lines. There is a message there somewhere, if you look hard enough. You will after all become a great leader of your cackle.  Maybe someday we will see each other again.

Boon-Su: We would like that.  Thank you.

Mali-wa: Goodbye, for now.  Thank you so much.

They parted ways like Ha-Ri and Ba-Kitpo did before.

Yes, indeed I too would like for the reader to read between the lines. Is it too incomprehensible to think or wonder that perhaps there has to be more than just the one lifetime, the one each of us have now, because perhaps there is more to just a lifetime of twenty, seventy years for many, perhaps ninety and more for a few, in a world that so far has been around for 13.8 billion years now and perhaps many more billion years into the future?

We cannot know.  But that is like for fishes to wonder what happened to one of them that was plucked from their world by something supernatural or invisible in an instant.  But that is easily explained by the hook, line and bait.  What is hard to explain is the kind of metamorphosis that butterflies go through. They exist in two worlds.  One, the caterpillar, dines on green leaves, while the other develop the ability to fly and dine on nectar.  Then on the other hand, the dragonfly does an incomplete metamorphosis by skipping the pupal stage.  Instead they go straight from a larva living and breathing under water, sometimes for many years, eating different prey, then leave the water world, learn to breathe air, develop wings and fly. 

The answers to so many of Ba-Kitpo's questions we cannot possibly know or even understand why, yet we must wonder whether one life is indeed all there is.  

This is where I urge the reader to read between the lines.

Re-birth of Common Sense?

Are we seeing common sense making a comeback? How did we lose it in the first place?

If one needs to look back at how common sense was lost, one must acknowledge its absence, but first one must ask when and how long has it been? Indeed one finds that it started a while back.

"Sensus communis", in Latin, is not to be confused with the five natural senses; "sensus" here refers to perception, sentiments, and understanding shared in the "communis", the community of people who believe or agree with the same.

So, perception, sentiments and understanding are of course expressed and received through language.  That is where we begin to look at why and how it all started. 

Almost innocently enough, and likely driven through academia or through minority progressives and liberal ideologists, words started creeping into conversations and social media discussions where the homeless who started setting up tents along sidewalks are now "unhoused people", illegal aliens coming into the country were "undocumented citizens", ex-convicts as "previously justice-involved", etc.

Where and how did all these words originate? 

Nottingham Trent University in England - home of the highly idealized Queen's English, of Shakespeare and Chaucer and Keats - came up with a long list solely for Recommended Terminology Concerning People with a Criminal Conviction. From all their concerns, I quote just two below a list of words to be avoided; (and note the "English" spelling, like "behaviour")

• Any language that aligns the current identity of a person with their historical actions should also be avoided, such as offender, perpetrator, ex-offender, or ex-prisoner.

• Avoid terms that suggest a homogeneous group that is defined and stigmatised on the basis of criminal behaviour that may have taken place once or infrequently, or many years in the past (e.g., sex offender or murderer).

Not to be outdone, or simply mimicking the English version (above), the State of Illinois came up with its "A Humanizing Terminology Guide".

TERMS AND DEFINITIONS GUIDE

"Incarcerated Person: A person confined to a jail or prison. This term makes no claim about guilt or innocence (contrary to words like “convict”), nor does it attach a permanent identity to an often-temporary status (like “prisoner” etc.)”

Formerly Incarcerated Person: A person who has been in a carceral setting. Examples of carceral settings are prisons, immigration detention centers, local jails, and juvenile detention centers".

Note that single words became phrases, like prison is now a "carceral setting".

We need to look at these because that is where the proverbial slippery slope started.  Remember that today, unlike in the past, where words or terms and opinions took a while to disperse into society, social media  is primarily primed and driven by academia or highly educated opinion makers at the speed of the internet. 

No less than the U.N.'s World Health Organization, 2018, section 6D32P, declared that "..pedophilia is a diagnosis of someone having an enduring sexual attraction to children; this does not however mean they have acted or will act on this unchosen attraction .."

The intent, of course, is that communities may not need to know if someone known to be a pedophile has moved into their city or town. Or that, employers may not need to know of the criminal records of job applicants.

As often the case with so  many of these virtue signaling ideals of the liberal mindset, offenders seem to be better protected than ordinary citizens.

However, there is a glimmer of hope. There was a flurry of media coverage just days ago of the re-awakening of common sense - an apparent about face from those efforts. For example, quotes from several newspapers said: 

A center-left think tank on Friday released a list of 45 words and phrases that Democrats should cut from their vocabulary to stop sounding like “enforcers of wokeness.” 

“Privilege,” “Othering,” “Triggering,” “Safe space” and “Body shaming,” are among the words Third Way lumped into the “therapy-speak” bucket. 

“Birthing person/inseminated person,” “pregnant people,” “chest feeding” and “patriarchy” should also be shunned to avoid “confusing or shaming people who could otherwise be allies,” the think tank urged. 

Democrats are also warned that terms like “justice-involved” and “involuntary confinement” make it seem as if “the criminal is the victim” and “the victim is an afterthought.”

There are reasons to hope; however, there are indications we need to prepare if such optimism might be short-lived.

You see, once after the expansion of pronouns and the discontent with the definition of what it is to be just gay, more letters from the alphabet were employed to come up with LGBTIQA+.  It makes it a lot harder for any effort by the center-left think tank to navigate the rushing waters that prevent common sense from getting through.

Getting rid of certain words from the language might seem like waking up from woke la-la land but adherents to conservatism may have cause to be cautious. (Foreign readers who may not know what "woke" means may want to read up on it).

Words are not enough if the same liberal idealists insist that biological male athletes are allowed to play in women's sports and that they are allowed to use girls/women locker rooms or bathrooms.  Words do not repair psychological harm to young girls subjected to sex re-assignment counselling by school administrators without their parents' knowledge or consent. One state mandated that female sanitary products are available in boys' bathrooms in high school.

One protester's held-up poster says, "Trans can't use girl's bathrooms is like blacks can't drink from white's water fountain" - a clear reference to racism in the U.S. during the era of segregation; which rankles the fabric of common sense.

Of course, it is politics that is driving the Democrat Party's new imperative to stay away from the 45 or so words that they deem to alienate voters.  But why or how did such words sneak into their vocabulary?  As far as we can tell, such re-defining of simple words could only come from academia. 

Only college professors or academics can come up with words like micro-aggression or environmental violence or inseminated person/birthing person just to avoid referencing the use of woman or female terminology by using chest feeding as opposed to breastfeeding. We saw liberal extremism when a Supreme Court nominee refused to answer how she defined what a woman is.  She replied that she can't because she is not a biologist.  That was clearly a blunt expression against common sense. She was confirmed anyway. 

Can we still continue to expect for the rebirth of common sense, anyway? Yes, because that is the only way we can continue with our lives.  To lose hope completely is to lose faith in the human experience.  It means that despite all the craziness that had occurred throughout human history, civilization continued to raise the level of the human spirit and awareness of the presence of something supernatural and the acknowledgement that perhaps a Supreme Being's intervention is what will straighten everything that had gone crooked with humanity. That, or else common sense may once again take another leave of absence.