Murphy's Law Alive and Well

The story goes that this epigram was named after Capt. Edward A. Murphy, US Air Force, who worked on effects of sudden deceleration on the human body at Edwards Air Force Base in Colorado in 1949.

The popular version of this so called “law” today is, “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong”.

Originally, since Capt. Murphy worked on an Air Force project, he declared from observation that, "If an aircraft part can be installed incorrectly, someone will install it that way”. Soon it was realized that it applied to almost anything people worked on. Examples of it had been popping up everywhere anyone cared to look.

When we think that technology today will eliminate or greatly reduce incidences of mishaps and snafus, we would be wrong.

The Roofing Mishap

In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, our home needed a new roof. Though damage was relatively minor compared to the thousands of other homes, our insurance company decided we needed a replacement.

We picked a contractor who was well reviewed and only one of two bidders who did not bother to get up to the roof to take measurements. Old school surveyors are already losing to satellite mapping technology and our contractor is keeping up with the digital age. The young salesman informed me that they use a satellite service that measures the square footage of the roof area from 200 miles up. A commercial subscriber downloads the data, writes up a contract and voila, you get their bid the following day. You sign the contract and send it back electronically.  Weeks later, roofers were and still are very busy, the same young man announced the good news – roofers will begin work the following Monday.

Monday morning came. No workers, no equipment, no material were at the front of the house. Shortly before 10:00 that morning I called the office. The kind receptionist was puzzled by my query and replied with a question of her own, “What do you mean the roofers are not there?” I had to tell her nicely. I did not succumb to sarcasm, as tempting as it was for me to say, “Unless the roofers and the materials were the invisible type, I don’t see them”. A half hour later she called back to say that the roofers went to the wrong house a couple of blocks down in a similar cul-de-sac and they had already successfully removed a third of the asphalt shingles of the house that did not need a new roof.

Anticipating your question let me explain. Our address and the errant one have the same exact house number on streets similarly named after a common indigenous tree, except with different prefix and suffix. Those of you familiar with Google map search, you typically see a listing of closely related addresses. The young man put in the wrong address from the list of choices when he requested for the satellite download. He provided the men with the same address. Here is what made this even a bit more bizarre. The material was delivered on Sunday by the supplier to that house, depositing the load right in between the house and its adjoining neighbor. The homeowners were out for the weekend. If they noticed it when they got back, they thought nothing of it, thinking it was for the other house. They both went to work that Monday morning.  The roofers came, saw the material, checked the address they were given, and up they went with their tall ladders and proceeded to work as they had done many mornings of their vocational life.

When the young man who also is the son of the owner of the company called, after apologizing profusely, promised to reschedule after they finish re-roofing the wrong house at his expense (His dad wanted to drive the lesson hard so it was on the son’s salary). But, there was one bad news. His quote was based on the roof area of the wrong house which, as a two story home, registered an area smaller than our single level home. The total living square footage of our home is smaller than most 2-level homes in the subdivision but the roof area has a larger footprint. He quoted an additional $4K for our roof. I know what you are thinking. We already had a signed contract; but I elected not to hold his feet to the fire because I had other encounters with Murphy’s Law that I will talk about later.  I went back to the insurance company who promptly agreed to go along with the higher quote.

But Mr. Murphy was not quite through with this episode. I had earlier decided to get rid of the two powered rooftop ventilators that had become more of a gateway for squirrels, raccoons and possums to the attic. The workers removed them and covered the holes. Meanwhile, on Wednesday while the roofers were still working, the heating/air conditioning guy came for the biannual inspection and checkup of the two units located at the attic. The HVAC guy came down after a quick trip to the attic and informed me that there was no electrical power to one of the units. The days had been cool so we didn’t even notice that the AC wasn’t working. I went up there with him and we could tell what happened.  To remove the ventilators the roofer merely cut off the power cord to the ventilators. The HVAC units and the ventilator though separate were wired from the same junction box. But why was there no power to the HVAC unit. That was a conundrum that seemed to defy explanation. The cord was not directly connected to the HVAC units. It took a good twenty minutes before we realized what had happened. When the roofer snipped the cord of the ventilator his cutter momentarily shorted the wires that tripped the breaker at the main breaker box that was shared by the HVAC units and the ventilator. Whew! “Where there was that possibility for it to happen, it certainly did”.

Murphy’s Law worked overtime in 1982

I mentioned earlier about my encounters with Murphy’s Law. Although it happened 35 years ago the string of occurrences, separate and unrelated that happened in one day, was etched indelibly in my memory.  It was in 1982, we were newly minted immigrants and I barely had three years in the company. I was at the early stages of my third assignment in a new department. I had to make a trip to California to visit a couple of our satellite offices and meet with a handful of business contacts.

I stopped by the office before proceeding to the airport thinking I had plenty of time. I miscalculated the Houston traffic. I missed my PAN AM non-stop flight (remember, this was when PAN AM was alive and well). The lady at the counter was so kind to get me on another flight but on another airline, however. She gave me a new ticket but I must hurry because the plane was leaving soon but not to worry because there was a transfer tram that serviced the three different terminals – A, B and C. I found the area where to board the tram and all I had to do was to listen for the announcement as the tram approaches each terminal. By that time I was a semi-nervous wreck, the public address system on the tram crackled indistinctly. The tram must have circled twice and I keep missing the correct terminal. I missed that flight. I went back to the PAN AM counter. The lady was still very nice (those were the days). She can get me on another plane. I will not have to leave the terminal (whew, and what a relief). The flight though required a change of plane in Denver but (again) not to worry because there was plenty of layover time for me to catch the connecting flight. It was fine because my first appointment was dinner with a business contact and since California was later by two hours off Central time I had plenty of cushion.

We arrived in Denver without a hitch.  All I needed was look for Gate 15 for my connecting flight. Gate numbers were on huge boards supported by cables from the high ceiling. Passengers walked along a walkway in between where the service counters were and the wide glass wall overlooking the tarmac. An easy chore.  I walked past Gate 12, 13, 14 and then Gate 16, then 17. I knew I went too far so I retraced my steps. I got back to Gate 14, but no 15. I retraced my steps once more until I got to the nearest counter to ask where Gate 15 was. The lady told me I was at Gate 15 (another whew!). I sat down, relieved that I had plenty of time to decompress. A few minutes later, there came two workmen carrying something and a tall ladder. They had the board that said Gate 15. They must have removed it earlier and were re-installing it. Don’t stop reading, it’s not over yet.

We got to San Francisco airport after a delayed departure from Denver. I got the rental car and with the map I laid out the route, the exits and turns for my destination. This was my first trip to California, my first business trip ever for that matter. My destination was Concord, CA where my hotel was and I was then getting a little frantic because there was not much time to waste before my dinner appointment at Walnut Creek. I missed one critical exit. California highways were a little unforgiving when you missed an exit.  It took several miles to get to the next exit for a U-turn. Discombobulation mixed with panic got the better of me as I missed the exit again. The sun had set, I was completely exhausted and missed the dinner to meet my contact (and remember this was pre-cell phone era).  It was a complete waste because the morning appointments and the day’s schedule precluded any make up time for the missed opportunity. Mr. Murphy has one more trick, so stay put for the next episode.

Two days later I was back to the SF airport to fly to Los Angeles (LA). I felt good because the drive from Concord to the airport went well and returning the car to the return location went without a hitch (not an easy feat because airport layouts are notoriously challenging to rental car returners). I felt good. I got to LA, no issues finding my hotel. I did not rent a car since my meetings were confined to the business area near the luxurious Bonaventure Hotel where I stayed for the night. Next day, after a nice breakfast I was ready for the first appointment with plenty of time.

For this trip I purchased a pair of new shoes that were very comfortable. Cordovan shoes, made from horse hide, usually come in burgundy color. At that time it was the most money I spent on a pair of shoes. It was a treat for my first business trip on a job I was enjoying thoroughly.  I had some time so I stopped by to have my shoes shined. Shoe shine spots are mostly located in hotel corners, usually under subdued lighting. I don’t know why but they just are, typically, that is. There I was sitting on one of those elevated seats served by a very engaging shoe shiner. He asked what military service I was in. I told him I was not although I felt flattered that I made that impression on him. He merrily kept polishing with gusto. Afterwards, after paying him with a nice tip, I proceeded outside to catch a cab. I arrived for my first appointment. As I got out of the cab I instinctively looked down at my shoes.

The rich bright burgundy Cordovan was no longer it. It was polished to a lustrous gleaming black! No wonder he asked me what branch of service I was part of. I picked that pair of Cordovan for its simple, no frills line that military shoes are noted for. He meant well and he also used a black dye that gave the pair that wet glassy spit shine that any Marine would have been proud of. The shoes irretrievably remained black for the rest of its useful life.

After that the rest of the trip went splendidly well. Murphy’s Law had its fill of mischief to last a long time.

We are still left with the question: Why indeed does anything that can go wrong, does? In my opinion, because we live in an imperfect world, there really is no such thing as a perfect anything.  From the macro world to the realm of sub-atomic particles, perfection is as elusive as the neutrino or the Higgs boson. Even towering volcanoes, with their inverted perfect cones, stood majestic for eons until they erupted and proceeded to obliterate surrounding square miles of land and pastures that for a long time were picturesque representations of tranquility. If a volcano, any volcano, has the potential to erupt, it will. Even if it takes 600,000 years, which had been the estimated interval between each of the last three eruptions of the super volcano that is beneath the Yellowstone National Park, it will again, someday.

Flu vaccines work and often cause little complication but because they can in rare cases, they indeed will. However, flu can turn virulent and indeed it will. Should you get a flu shot during flu season? According to Murphy’s Law you should. If that was the message I was going after, forgive me for taking the most meandering path but you must agree with the corollary to Murphy’s Law - the day you ignore doing the preventive step that you’ve routinely done many times before is like forgetting to bring an umbrella and be caught in a heavy downpour on a day you had a new outfit for an important meeting.

Remember, Murphy’s Law is an equal opportunity distributor of mishaps where and when we least expect them.

A need for show and tell: (I think the photos will enlarge with a tap)

This is what started it all. Hurricane Harvey, besides this, also caused the closure of the Houston airport. A day before the heavy wind and rains our flight was cancelled. We missed the flight for a foreign tour. But there was a silver lining. Because we were home I prevented a much more serious problem. I took down 35 gallons of water from the leak coming down between the chimney and roof joints. The buckets shown in second picture caught most of the water. I was up and down the attic all night long hauling each filled bucket. The damage could have been more serious and severe.

The ventilator wire took a split second to snip but enough to trip the breaker

This would have been what the owner of the errant home would have seen when they came home to see their roof partially cleared of the asphalt shingles. 

The overcast sky looked like another opportunity for Murphy's Law to have doled out another mischief but the rain did not come.

The chimney flashing got the attention it deserved

It was messy. The roofing contractor was nice enough to replace a couple of weakened roofing sheets with new ones

At last, after all that, it is all done and done well.  The roofing contractor, despite the little miscue, did an excellent job in just three days. (On the first day they engaged ten men to do the initial work; six did the finishing work the next two days. They cleaned up the area without any residual sign they were there, except for a job well done.

This is, among the other things that happened this year, something to be thankful for this coming Thanksgiving Day. 

Roads Paved with Good Intentions

Just a few days ago the EPA approved the release of male mosquitoes to eliminate or slow down the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Here is a Nature Magazine clip of that news:

“Instead of relying on genetic engineering, MosquitoMate infects lab-grown mosquitoes with the common bacterium Wolbachia pipientis, which affects mosquitoes but not animals or humans.

The Wolbachia-infected male mosquitoes (which don't bite) mate with the wild populations of female Asian tiger mosquitoes (which do bite). The eggs fertilized by MosquitoMate's male mosquitoes won't hatch because the paternal chromosomes don't form properly due to the effects of the bacterium.”

This is supposed to be good news, right? Let’s hope it is, however, we should not forget that there were many instances in the past when the “cure” was worse than the “disease”.

In late 1900s mongooses were brought into Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands to eradicate rats that were infesting the sugar cane fields. Mongoose, a native of India, is a voracious predator and it would certainly have found rats to be quite delectable; however, so were birds, reptiles and amphibians and chicken, naturally.  The mongoose, thriving even today, caused the decline of and sometimes the extinction of local species. The “hired” predator is now a bigger pest in habitats where it is at the top of the food chain. Meanwhile, rats are still a problem.

At one time, China declared war on sparrows because they fed on grain before harvest. Sparrows also fed on insects. Well, yield in rice production actually went down when the sparrow population declined from the massive eradication campaign but over population by insects did a number on the rice field.

The Story of the Snail Darter Fish

Depending on which side one stands on this story, it was either a case of extreme environmentalism or whether progress was almost halted by a small fish about twice the length of a paper clip. In the 70’s the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) was constructing a dam on the Tellico River for a major hydroelectric project. It had been approved by Congress and Federal money was allocated and was near completion when opponents to the dam took up the case of the snail darter fish. The dam, safer than a nuclear reactor and cleaner than fossil-fuel-fired electric plants, will cause the extinction of the small fish. It was protected under The Endangered Species Act. A court injunction temporarily stopped the construction. After much delay a higher court allowed the project to be completed citing that so much money was already spent. Likely not cited in the decision was the fact that electric energy production for a large population area outweighed the fate of the fish.

But there was a twist. After the dam was completed, it was discovered that the darter fish existed in several other tributary bodies of water along the same river system and thriving well. It was subsequently taken off the endangered species list.  This darter fish story was cited in a California case where another fish, the delta smelt, is in the middle of another cause celeb involving water supply distribution.

There are a number of stories enough to fill a whole book where good intentions by well-meaning folks, and even by government bureaucrats, backfired or resulted in ill effects worse than the original malady. Consider the case of the rat tails in French colonial era Vietnam.

The Rat Tail Story

In 1897, the French introduced the sewer system in Hanoi to modernize the city and promote wide spread use of indoor plumbing. Nine miles of underground sewer system was completed when the rat population exploded almost overnight – the cool dark sewers were ideal breeding ground for the rodents. Fearing bubonic plague and other diseases, the French colonial government decided a rat eradication campaign. Rat killers were dispatched to hunt the rodents down in the sewers. Although so many rats were killed, the program was far from a total success. The well-to-do folks whose homes were naturally served by the sewer system, thus the first the rats would go to when they emerged from underground, complained loudly.  The rat hunting was opened to all citizens who were enticed with a one cent incentive for every rat tail brought in. The tail idea was conceived so government officials and facilities did not have to deal with rat corpses. Rat tails started pouring in by the thousands. It was fine until it was later discovered that rats with no tails were seen running around. It turned out that a good number of “rat catchers” were capturing rodents, cut off their tails and released them so they can continue to breed, thus ensuring a healthy source of rat tails to sell to the government. In extreme cases some folks resorted to actually breeding rats in cages, poultry like, which were more efficient and less labor intensive than going out each night to hunt for the hapless rodents. If you’re interested, check out my musing, “When Rattle Snakes Don’t Rattle Anymore”.

The Barbra Streisand Effect

“In 2003, Streisand sued photographer Kenneth Adelman for distributing aerial pictures of her mansion in Malibu. But Adelman was no paparazzo—he operated the California Coastal Records Project, a resource providing more than 12,000 pictures of the California coast for scientists and researchers to use to study coastal erosion. At the time Streisand sued Adelman for $50 million, the picture in question had been accessed a whopping total of six times—twice by Streisand’s lawyers. Nonetheless, her lawsuit stated that the photos explicitly showed people how to gain access to her private residence”.

The lawsuit, before which only a handful of people knew of Ms. Streisand’s expensive mansion, resulted in over a  million views by people who otherwise would have been oblivious to Ms. Streisand’s residential location.

The Economist described the Streisand Effect as, when “efforts to suppress a juicy piece of online information can backfire and end up making things worse for the would-be censor.”

Not only did Ms. Streisand lose the $50 million lawsuit, she had to pay over $150,000 in court fees incurred by Mr. Adelman.

There are two main themes from these stories. First, we have classic examples that best exemplify the old proverb, “The roads to hell are paved with good intentions”. Second, it is not a wise idea to make such a big deal of something when your intention is to make sure it does not become one in the first place.  These proverbial statements are also called aphorisms – concise statements of facts or generally considered truths expressed in as few words as possible. For example, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

There are a few more examples worth noting that did not seem obvious immediately: eradication of wolves from some U.S. National Parks; widespread use of DDT to eradicate harmful insects that almost wiped out the entire population of bald eagles; environmental disaster not initially seen when beavers were hunted down to near extinction for their pelts. On the other hand, the prohibition managed to kill off legitimate businesses immediately but did not eradicate alcohol consumption; instead, it ushered the birth of organized crime from liquor smuggling, which became the “business model” for other crime organizations that today are more sophisticated than ever.

Let’s do a speculative one.

There were some analyses made by a handful of folks on the ascendancy of the “Trump Phenomenon”. Early during the Republican primary, the mainstream media (MSM) were seen to give Trump premier coverage over his opponents. The MSM reason was that he was a news maker and so he got a good share of media attention. One line of analysis was that the media was so much into making sure that there was another breakthrough political event (i.e. Pres. Obama was elected the first black president) when for the first time the country will have had its first woman president. The idea, according to the speculation, was that Trump will be so much easier to beat in a general election. Collectively, the media, so the claim goes, wanted Trump to be the Republican candidate. Trump was prone to self-inflicted political wounds and his bombastic, flamboyant personality did not conform to generally accepted norms of political conduct and would easily have been a weaker candidate. MSM, it was concluded, promoted Trump’s ascendancy and once he was the candidate, then the same MSM can easily bring him down. What they did not count on was how poorly Mrs. Clinton ran her campaign. She also committed her fair share of self-inflicted rhetorical wounds, i.e. “deplorables” comments, and not campaigning in states she assumed she was going to win handily. If true, MSM also underestimated Trump’s indefatigable energy and determination to work hard on his own campaign.

Can we classify this as an example of good intentions that did not result in what it was intended for? Is today’s predominantly negative coverage by the media of Pres. Trump’s administration a reflexive effort by MSM to rectify their miscalculation? Are they trying to bring down, someone in their mind, the “monster” they created? I leave that to the political pundits. And there is almost an unlimited arena for punditry to last at least through the next three years. I think the jury is still out as to whether the last election was a case of a road paved with “good” intentions that is now full of potholes. Note “good” is in quotation marks.

Next time you hear politicians promise another good thing for the people, first ask yourself if it is just another road paved with good intentions.